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Latest Posts
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Why Insiders Are Bullish When Nobody Else Is
Try to ignore the doom-and-gloom headlines. No bear market lasts forever, and they always create profitable buying opportunities. Company insiders know that, you just need to know where to look.
Gradually Worse
This time last year, the great debate was whether inflation would be "transitory." That question is now settled, and we have moved on to debating what the Federal Reserve will do about it - and can do about it.
I’m Buying Another Dirt-Cheap Energy Stock
Ovintiv, formerly Encana is dirt cheap. The stock has almost doubled in the past year, yet it’s trading for 4 times 2023 estimated earnings per share.
A Trillion Here, A Trillion There...
For the last six years, I have done occasional analyses of the debt situation. I gave you an update on the numbers back in September 2020. Today we’ll review them again, with the benefit of the Congressional Budget Office’s latest forecast.
Amazon Is Doing Something It Hasn't Done In Over 20 Years
Today, Amazon is doing something it hasn’t done since the dot-com bubble. A stock split.
Three Stocks To Buy In This Bear Market
There’s a silver lining to the current bear market. It’s created great buying opportunities.
They’re Missing The Point About Warren Buffett (Again)
What a mess…The California Public Employee Retirement System (CalPERS) is throwing another hissy fit about legendary investor Warren Buffett and his holding company, Berkshire Hathaway.
Into The Fire
As bad as conditions are, they have the real potential to get even worse. Today we will explore how China’s latest COVID-19 lockdowns will affect the global economy. Hint: It won’t be good. We may be out of the frying pan and into the fire.
How To Pick Dividend-Payers, Plus My Favorite One To Buy Now
Ask income investors what they’re looking for, and one word is bound to come up. Predictability. Income investors want to know the money will keep showing up.
Other Possibilities
Today we’ll consider the risks to my stagflation forecast. Note that’s different from the risks of my forecast, should it prove accurate. I’ve described those already, but it’s important to ask how I might be wrong.
How To Play Merger Arbitrage
The investing world is chock-full of confusing terms. Like “merger arbitrage.” It sounds complicated, but the setup is simple.
Curve Ball
Evidence is showing that a recession is coming. The latest was the “inverted yield curve” with the 2-year Treasury yield exceeding the 10-year Treasury yield. That’s the opposite of normal. Then again, things have been the opposite of normal lately.
Things Are Getting Better
In these letters, I look at the economy and tell you what I think. Recent missives were mostly negative. I regret being the bearer of bad news, but sometimes that’s just reality. Today I want to focus on good news and sometimes great news.
Brace For (Recession) Impact
The recession we are entering is strange for a reason beside those I described last week. The last “normal” recession ended in 2009, almost 13 years ago. As with most unpleasant experiences, we don’t put much energy into remembering what it was like.
Another Strange Recession
Back in the old days, recessions were simply the unpleasant part of the business cycle. Consumer choices, exuberant businesses, and monetary policy would generate growth contractions. We debated the timing, but recessions didn’t come out of the blue.
Oil Won’t Drop Below $100 Anytime Soon
Oil is going to stay over $100 for some time, and not just because of Russia. It’s because of cycles and sentiment.
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