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The Great Jobs Reset
The biggest danger to the stock market is that the Federal Reserve in particular and central banks in general, “lose the narrative.” When the market stops believing the Fed can control interest rates and influence markets, we enter a scary new world.
Random Thoughts From The Frontline
Today we will cover several topics in shorter form: valuations, infrastructure, the debacle in Texas, and a lot more. Let’s jump in.
Overstimulation Risk
Coming on top of trillions already authorized in prior bills, a budget deficit that was already approaching $2 trillion, and the Federal Reserve stimulating in its own ways, people are asking whether this is too much. The answer depends on COVID-19.
HH Controlling The Curve
Treasury issuance is going to grow in the 2020's. We are already at a $2 trillion deficit without any pandemic relief or infrastructure spending. Who will buy that debt? How high will long-term yields need to go to draw out enough buyers?
Inflation And Broken Windows
As I have been repeating all month, anything I say about the economy is subject to the coronavirus “Gripping Hand.” It greatly constrains the available options. Other possibilities open up if we manage to get and keep the virus under control.
Forecast 2021: The Stock Market
Today we are going to focus on my stock market expectations. As I promised last week, this is a “Generational Call.” For reasons we will go into below, I think we are at a pivot point for stocks, with some clear exceptions I will outline.
The Grip Tightens
The one thing we can say with certainty about this year is that the virus outweighs everything else. The economy can grow if we control the virus, or more likely shrink if the virus keeps spreading.
Year Of The Gripping Hand
This week’s text is the first part of my 2021 forecast. There is simply too much to cover in one letter, and today we’ll start with the most important factor: a known unknown that I think will be the driver for 2021.
Stock Market Party
The passage of time indicates monetary stimulus may be more important to markets than fiscal aid. The stimulus checks, extra unemployment benefits, and PPP loans mostly ended over the summer and fall, but stocks kept climbing.
EC Survival Of The Biggest
In the most-affected sectors, the largest players are winning and the smallest ones dying. Instead of survival of the fittest, we see survival of the biggest. The problem: Biggest isn’t always best.
Elites On The Edge
Growing income and wealth inequality were on my (and probably your) radar screen long before COVID-19 came along. The pandemic has made them both more obvious and more urgent. The actions by the Federal Reserve have widened the gap.
The Financial Fire Trucks Of 2021
A Happy Thanksgiving weekend to all my US friends. This year was different for many of us—sometimes by choice, sometimes not. But there’s one bit of good news I think we can all share: The holiday season means 2020 is almost over.
The Great Reset Vs. The Great Reset
COVID-19 was the ultimate ball out of left field. We knew viruses spread and pandemics were possible. Most of us have lived through them before. We didn’t foresee this one appearing when and where it did. But it quickly changed the course of history.
A Chance For Normalcy
Divided government isn’t necessarily bad. It can actually help force the different factions to bend a little and avoid extremes. I think, or at least I hope, they will come out of their ideological holes and talk to each other.
Complexity Wins Again
Today, I want to use the election to illustrate just how complex a seemingly simple situation can be. This matters not just politically, but economically as well. If measuring voters is complex, measuring the economy is even more so.
What Will Not Change
I think we may be on the cusp of a sweeping change in human organization. Instead of clustering together in giant concrete boxes so we can be close to the people we think we should be, we will cluster virtually, with exactly the people we need.
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