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Curving Toward Stagflation
Markets evidently think the Fed will stop hiking sooner rather than later. They are literally not paying attention to what multiple Fed officials are saying in speeches all over the country.
“Have We Reached The Bottom Yet?”
People keep asking me, “Have we reached the bottom yet?” The first dot-com bubble provides a useful roadmap for answering that question.
Weirdness Factors
It’s a recession! No, not yet! I see these arguments everywhere and I’m already tired of them. For those who believe it is not yet a recession, I will make a deal with you. When we have three quarters of a recession in a row, just give it up.
A Weird Recession
Professional economists, perhaps tired of being asked, years ago formed a committee to officially mark the beginning and end of recessions, the NBER committee considers a variety of data, but its final decision is subjective.
Global Crop Yields Have Plateaued
Ed D'Agostino talks with economist and agriculture expert Dan Basse of AgResource about climate change, "peak farmland," China and more.
Hubris At The Fed
Finding just the right word brings great pleasure to writers like me. As I think and write about the Federal Reserve, the word “hubris” keeps coming to mind.
Forgotten Lessons
In politics, we can often limit the damage by voting out the offenders. It’s more difficult with institutions designed specifically to avoid such accountability, like the Federal Reserve System.
These Stocks Can Do Something Coca-Cola Cannot
Coco-Cola it’s a great stock to own. But it has a $270 billion market cap, and its business is quite mature. The stock is unlikely to double in the next year, let alone blast off.
Time Has A Price
One benefit of human progress is the way we gain “common knowledge” that was once anything but common. We observe basic facts—for example, water boils if placed over a flame—and then build on them.
I Haven’t Seen Bargains This Good In 20 Years
The S&P 600 is full of profitable, small-cap value stocks. And they’re trading at bargain levels we haven’t seen in two decades.
Inflation Reaches Unicorns
One reason today’s inflation has us all so concerned is we went a long time without any. That wasn’t normal. This is one reason the prospect of extended 5%, 8%, or higher inflation feels so dreadful. We’ve forgotten what it was like.
Why Insiders Are Bullish When Nobody Else Is
Try to ignore the doom-and-gloom headlines. No bear market lasts forever, and they always create profitable buying opportunities. Company insiders know that, you just need to know where to look.
Gradually Worse
This time last year, the great debate was whether inflation would be "transitory." That question is now settled, and we have moved on to debating what the Federal Reserve will do about it - and can do about it.
I’m Buying Another Dirt-Cheap Energy Stock
Ovintiv, formerly Encana is dirt cheap. The stock has almost doubled in the past year, yet it’s trading for 4 times 2023 estimated earnings per share.
A Trillion Here, A Trillion There...
For the last six years, I have done occasional analyses of the debt situation. I gave you an update on the numbers back in September 2020. Today we’ll review them again, with the benefit of the Congressional Budget Office’s latest forecast.
Amazon Is Doing Something It Hasn't Done In Over 20 Years
Today, Amazon is doing something it hasn’t done since the dot-com bubble. A stock split.
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