James Picerno | TalkMarkets | Page 155
Editor at The ETF Asset Class Performance Review
Contributor's Links: The Capital Spectator
James Picerno is a veteran financial journalist and has been writing about portfolio strategies, investment products, and macroeconomics since the early 1990s at Bloomberg, Dow Jones and other media groups before becoming an independent writer/analyst/consultant in 2008. He’s currently ...more

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US Economic Growth: The Last Line Of Defense
The recent turbulence in financial and commodity markets has cast a dark shadow over the near-term outlook
ADP Employment Report: August 2015 Preview
Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 194,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s August update of the ADP Employment Report vs. the previous month.
Macro Markets Risk Index: U.S. Business Cycle Risk Is Elevated
US economic risk increased at the end of August, according to a markets-based estimate of macro conditions. The Macro-Markets Risk Index closed at +0.4% yesterday after briefly slipping into mildly negative territory for several days last week.
Major Asset Classes | August 2015 | Performance Review
August was a painful month for most markets around the world. Other than fractional gains in foreign bond markets (mainly in developed countries), last month delivered a deep shade of red ink far and wide.
ISM Manufacturing Index: August 2015 Preview
The ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to tick higher to 53.0 in tomorrow’s update for August vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates.
The Case For A Rate Hike Relies On Forecasts Of Firmer Inflation
Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer over the weekend laid out the rationale for raising US interest rates in the near future, perhaps as early as next month. His reasoning boils down to two main arguments.
US Consumer Spending & Income Rises At Moderate Pace In July
Consumer spending and income continued to post moderate gains, according to this morning’s update for July from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. The numbers du jour reaffirm the view that a solid if modest US expansion was intact last month.
A Fed Rate Hike In September? No… Yes… Maybe?
In short, the key Treasury yield has effectively dismissed this week’s market turbulence as noise.
Encouraging US Data In Today’s US GDP & Jobless Claims Reports
This morning’s macro updates reaffirm the case for cautious optimism on the outlook for the US economy.
The US Macro Trend Holds Steady To Date Amid Market Turmoil
The only thing worse than crumbling stock prices is a market slide that’s accompanied by a contracting economy. The US has witnessed the former recently, but it’s not obvious that the macro trend is fatally wounded.
US Treasury Yields Posted A Surprising Rebound On Tuesday
The US stock market couldn’t hold on to its snap-back rally in early trading on Tuesday, but Treasury yields posted a sharp U-turn yesterday (Aug. 25).
U.S. Services Sector Maintains Healthy Growth Rate In August
A potential warning sign for the months ahead is the deceleration in the rate of growth for new business volumes in services–a downshift that marks the slowest pace since January.
Q3:2015 U.S. GDP Estimate: +2.1% - August 25, 2015
Stock markets around the world have tumbled in recent days, which implies that expectations for economic growth have taken a hit.
Chicago Fed: U.S. Growth At Historical Trend Rate In July
U.S. economic output accelerated in July, returning to its historical trend rate, according to this morning’s update of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index’s three-month average (CFNAI-MA3).
Is The US Economy Headed For Trouble This Fall?
The global markets are predicting that the macro trend is turning ugly.
Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index: July 2015 Preview
Using today’s estimate for June as a guide, CFNAI’s three-month average is expected to reflect an expansion that’s close to the historical trend rate for growth and therefore well above the tipping point that marks the start of a new recession.
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