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Traders' Insight

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August Durable Goods: Weaker New Orders, Rising Backlogs And Heavy Inventories
The August durable goods report is negative for 3rd quarter GDP prospects but mildly positive for inflation.
What’s (Not) Up With VIX?
VIX tends to move inversely to the broader market. It tends to rise when markets fall, and vice versa.
Buckle Up – The FOMC Is No Longer In Neutral
For those who have been blissfully out of contact for a while, we are bracing for another FOMC announcement and Chair Powell's press conference this afternoon.
Is The Put/Call Ratio Telling Us Anything Meaningful?
The put/call ratio is a popular metric. We take the volume of put options and divide it by the volume of call options. Simple arithmetic is easy for people to understand.
Understanding Index Options
There are key differences between index options and equity/ETF options. With a quarterly expiration tomorrow, it seems like a particularly opportune time to discuss them.
Goldilocks Or Gorilla?
At Jackson Hole, Mr. Powell went from Goldilocks to a gorilla. He stated tersely and forcefully that the Fed’s goal was to bring inflation back to back to its 2% target level, even if that came at the expense of the broader economy.
Notes From The Aftermath
There is no way to put lipstick on yesterday’s pig of a market move. CPI was above expectations, the debate about the Fed’s next move flipped from a 50 or 75 basis point hike to 75 or 100, and major US indices fell by 4%-5%.
August CPI: Lower Gasoline Prices Are No Longer Saving The Day
The CPI came in hotter than expected at 8.3 percent on a year-over-year basis while the core segment which excludes food and energy due to their volatile characteristics was up 6.3 percent.
Inflation And The Fed
The rate of inflation is slowing against the backdrop of slowing consumption and tighter financial conditions.
When Cross-Assets Bite
The market’s mood has turned much more cautious, if not fearful. On Friday, we received a payrolls report that should have been taken in stride.
How Do You Spell Relief?
Today's report removed the need for antacids after a stomach-churning few days. But relief is one thing, complacency another.
Did We Learn Anything From Today’s ADP Report?
The ADP National Employment Report for August was awaited by many who hoped that it could offer a clue to Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls Report.
Goldilocks Feeds The Bears
It became painfully apparent that Mr. Powell no longer wanted to be accused of any ambiguity. He made it abundantly clear that fighting inflation was the Fed’s number one consideration, maybe its only consideration.
Goldilocks: “Stop Doubting My Resolve To Cool The Porridge”
One of the most eagerly awaited speeches in recent market memory is now behind us.
Can “Goldilocks In A Suit” Keep The Bears Away?
The long-awaited Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, kicks off today. Coming near the end of summer, it usually becomes a focus for investors during a slow news cycle.
King Dollar
If the dollar continues onto further strength, we may see a negative impact on major US companies. That can have a profound effect on equity valuations, and not in a good way.
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