T.J. Hayes Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Founder, HedgeFundTips.com
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T.J. Hayes is Founder, Chairman and Managing Member of Great Hill Capital, LLC (a long/short equity manager based in New York City).  He started Hedge Fund Tips as a platform to share actionable insights, tips and research for investors/traders to ... more

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“Wrong Side Of The Wave” Stock Market (And Sentiment Results)
Spreads peaked at 6% in early July and have now rolled over to 4.24% (176 bps) in the past 5 weeks alone. This looks more like a small “aftershock” than a new earthquake.
A “Sealing Systems” Stock Market (And Sentiment Results)
The Auto Industry is finally moving past the worst of a costly semiconductor shortage that has reportedly cut 13 million vehicles from global production since the start of 2021.
The “Jawboning” Stock Market (And Sentiment Results)
The Hawks were out this week, trying to walk-back the “data dependent” pivot from Chairman Powell last week.
The “Better Than Feared” Stock Market (And Sentiment Results)
Unconventional behavior is the only road to superior investment results, but it isn’t for everyone.
Chris Stapleton “Starting Over” Stock Market (And Sentiment Results)
The “hard roads” are stepping in at times like these when others are selling in the hole. We saw it with China stocks bottoming in March. We saw it with Biotech bottoming in May. We may now be seeing it with the general indices in July.
“As Bad As It Gets” Stock Market (And Sentiment Results)
In this week’s AAII Sentiment Survey result, Bullish percent jumped to 26.9% from 19.4% last week.
The Billionaire Investors You Have Never Heard Of
The time to get bearish is when everyone is calm. Right now people are hidden under bunkers. By the time they announce an “official recession” the stock market will have bottomed well beforehand.
The G7 “Double Down” Stock Market (And Sentiment Results)
With consumer confidence at all-time lows, the stock market in a bear market, the economy on the verge of recession.
“Should’ve Been Me” Stock Market (And Sentiment Results)
In this week’s AAII Sentiment Survey result, bullish percent ticked down to 18.2% this week from 19.4% last week.
“Take Your Medicine” Stock Market (And Sentiment Results)
They raised 75bps in November 1994. The S&P bottomed a month later.
The “TGIF” Stock Market (And Sentiment Results)
About a third of U.S. inflation is a result of new and used cars, all due to the shortage of semiconductors.
“Chip Shot” Stock Market (And Sentiment Results)
Chips are the key to the economy/inflation moving forward.  They are also the key to one of our major new positions in an auto-supplier
The Deflating “Inflation Narrative” Stock Market (And Sentiment Results)
Managers have the highest cash balances since 9/11 in 2001 and are the Most Underweight stocks since May 2020
The “Mystery Liquidator Revealed” Stock Market (And Sentiment Results)
In this week’s AAII Sentiment Survey result, Bullish Percent ticked up a hair to 26% this week from 24.3% last week. Bearish Percent rose to 50.4% from 49%.
The “Forced Seller” Stock Market (And Sentiment Results)
The selling we are seeing in recent days is not orderly or natural, it is forced selling from fund liquidations and margin calls. It will flush through the system and then we can find a bottom and start to recover.
“Threading The Needle” Stock Market (And Sentiment Results)
Two weeks ago AAII sentiment survey dropped to a 30 year low at 15.8% bullish. Last week it ticked up modestly to 16.4%.
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