Update 7: Germany is trying to pull out of Huawei's 5G network and Canada is wavering. There is no doubt that China will retaliate. Germany had expressed no reservations in the article above. But with Trump indicating a return to tariff wars with Europe, it appears that the west could be cowering in the face of Trump pressure. The way these nations have treated China could be an indication of a very unhealthy world POTUS is creating.

China and Europe need to schmooze economically and try to offset Trump's insanity. Europe is no growth. US is barely growing. China is 6 percent growth. India is 8 percent growth. Growth exists in Asia alone. The rest of the world is a waste of time. The propaganda coming out of the USA against China is so phony as to be laughable.

The main point of disagreement I have with Beckley is regarding his idea that China is surrounded by hostile nations. Clearly, Asia is bonding. So he can't be right about that. Otherwise, fascinating article.

A global slowdown will just be hastened by a rise in #gasoline prices. So oil producers look weakened no matter what the price.

Others have said it is a combo of rate hikes and balance sheet run off. But the wimpy rate hikes would likely be a sign to Will Rogers that the economy and financial system are pretty weak.

If investors are fearful of investing, late in the cycle, when all prices are relatively inflated, the Fed must kick start investment. The Fed must slow the economy or it will slow itself violently, as GDP will drop, as in 2007-8. Unfortunately, the Fed sometimes jumps the gun, because of fear of the zero lower bound, and then only helps bigger business in a recovery. It should help everyone it breaks.

Water trickles down. Money trickles up. Trickle down money is just fraud.

Prof, there is a debate as to whether the Fed is tightening or not. GDP seems to be holding up. My question is whether you think the bad bbb and lower debt is massive enough to reflect that the Fed is indeed tightening, or is it not significant enough to prove tightening?

This article is interesting because the Fed was really tight in 2010. Not so tight now. Yet I will say, along the lines of Will Rogers, that the stock market apparently cannot absorb even a whiff of rising rates and balance sheet runoff. It despises the anticipation of tightening and looks more at QE or no QE more than it looks at Fed mandated targets.

So a decline in earnings has become neither a major headwind or tailwind for stocks. That is murky at best. But it is an interesting article.