David Haggith - Comments
Author, The Great Recession Blog
Contributor's Links: The Great Recession Blog

My path to writing this blog began as a personal journey. Prior to the start of this so-called “Great Recession,” my ex-wife had a family home that was an inheritance from her mother. I worked as a property manger at the time, and near the end of 2007, I could tell from rumblings in ... more

Latest Comments
April 2019 Initial Unemployment Claims Moving Average Worsens
1 month ago

"The unemployment rate is currently worse than one year ago." No it isn't. Your graphs clearly show it is better. Lower unemployment rates are better like a lower golf score is better.

Labor Slowdown Already; Another Account Falls In Line Of May 29
1 month ago

I wish the article indicated what changed on May 29th other than statistics. (Maybe the author hasn't figured that out yet either.) Why did the eurodollar break? Why did this one measure of employment break while other measures did not? What were other things that Snyder alludes to as happening on May 29th? He sounds as though May 29th is a date that keeps coming up, but it looks in this article more like a convenient alignment of 2-3 statistical changes at most.

Market At The Crossroads
3 months ago

This sounds like the usual pro-bull story that tries its hardest to recreate a bullish narrative in bad times. I predicted the stock market would take its first plunge in January of 2018, which it did at the end of January in a record-breaking drop at the time. I predicted the market's second leg down in this protracted crash would not come until summer, which it did when the FAANG stocks that had been the market generals for a decade utterly crashed (falling by about 40%). And I predicted that the market's worst leg down would be its third event in October, and it was. Why was the future predicable. Not because I'm divinely inspired or extra brilliant or have a crystal ball or have the market rigged.... but because the Federal Reserve has the market rigged and it told us exactly what its balance-sheet unwind schedule would be. It was a fundamental deduction to conclude that the start of QT in the fall of 2017 would not amount to much because it was so small that its only effect would be the fear that it was beginning, but that when the Fed doubled that rate in January, bond yields would spike and start drawing money out of stocks. Then, the market would digest this new reality, new tax breaks would fully kick in with economic benefits that were frontloaded to fuel a massive built-in guarantee of stock buybacks, which would carry the market along until summer when the Fed's third increase in its Great Recover Rewind speed would click in at a level that would finally start to get actually serious. And then, at then, just in time for an October surprise, they would kick things up to full velocity -- a rate of financial tightening equal to 5/8 of the massive doses of financial loosening they used to goose the market to heady heights in the first place. If you look at a graph of any market index it is undeniably obvious that the market blew all to pieces in January of 2018. The dive down then was not just a jolt down, it broke the markets trend line like a falling person breaks their back landing backward on a stair rail. It couldn't be more obviously broken, and the market has failed to recover throughout the Fed's tightening period. So, until the Fed stops it Great Recover Rewind, it is going to keep rewinding its fake recovery all the back to the pit of the recession where it started. --David Haggith The Great Recession Blog

Something Wicked This Way Comes. Is It The Fed? Is It The President? Is It The Treasurer?
5 months ago

Kind of like The Mnuchin Candidate. I like the concept!

The Run Ends At The Highs
9 months ago

Lance, Lance, Lance, with so much in the middle of your article about how fragile the market is, how the Fed (and other central banks) will not be there to provide support if something goes wrong, and how much contagion possibility exists with the Turkish lira crisis, why on earth would you be counseling clients to cautiously move up to full 100% equity exposure -- especially in an article with the giveaway title "The Run Ends at the Highs." Here we are moving back to an all-time high at at time with all the fragility you describe, and you're counseling investors to buy in more??? --David Haggith The Great Recession Blog

In this article: GLD
Here’s Why Crypto Is Correcting ... And Why It’s Temporary
1 year ago

Good point. It can turn the market from leaning toward being a black market to being a mainstream out-in-the-daylight market. Right now, a lot of people are afraid to get involved because it is unregulated, prey to hackers, and obscure.

In this article: BITCOMP
Do Bond Prices Have Momentum?
1 year ago

Thanks, Anastasjia. (Love that name by the way.) I'm sure there can be many other factors, but I think supply and demand is the big one another. Another factor would be opportunity cost. If you're going to buy a bond, you have to ask yourself, "What other opportunities are there for me with this much money that are similar in risk, but maybe better in reward, or the same in reward but lower in risk." So, right now, with stocks looking risky in response to what was happening in the bond market, some people might actually decide to buy and hold bonds for safety (different than buying into a bond fund because bond funds can crash due to lack of liquidity (like a run on the bank); but bonds can be safely held and keep paying predictable interest for years. So, there is an equilibrium kind of force that sets in when stocks start to really crash, and people move to buying and holding bonds directly. That onslaught of buying creates more demand for the bonds and starts lowering their interest back down. That in turn, will make the stock market that is nervous right now a little less nervous if it sees bond yields going back down. In fact, one of the things that makes it nervous about seeing bond yields go up is that investors fear other investors will move out of stocks. So, it's a dynamic relationship like a game of tug-o-war.

In this article: TYX, TNX
Here’s Why Crypto Is Correcting ... And Why It’s Temporary
1 year ago

Is getting clarification on gov't regs when "clarification" means getting regulated actually going to boost cryptos? It will, if it is effective, bar a lot of corrupt activity that is likely happening in the crypto market now (such as price rigging?) and may take away a few customers who use crypto to evade the law (such as to evade taxes or to launder money). Regulations will seek to cover all those things, which will reduce the number of customers and the number of transactions while increasing the cost of managing cryptos.

In this article: BITCOMP
Do Bond Prices Have Momentum?
1 year ago

It is simplistic to write as if the only factor driving interest on bonds up faster is inflation. Look at the numerous people who KNOWINGLY purchased bonds with negative real interest, meaning that they knew, once inflation was factored in, the interest on their bond would actually be negative. That shows there are other major factors in what people will pay for a bond and, therefore, where its interest can go than just inflation. People were scared and were willing to take calculated losses from inflation on the belief that those bonds were the only safe place to stand. Inflation is only one factor that drive interest rates in bond. Fear, as described above, is another. Therefore, if you have reason to believe fear will be rising, you have reason to believe upward momentum in interest rates will back off. The biggest factor of all is supply and demand. It's quite simple, if you have a massive supply of bonds to sell and cannot attract anywhere near enough buyers to raise all the money you need, you're going to have to up your interest game. Inflation being anticipated down the road only means you have to up it for that, too. So, when it comes to momentum, if you can look down the road and see that the supply of bonds is burgeoning AND you can see that the demand for bonds from the largest buyer of bonds (the Federal Reserve) is decreasing, you KNOW (even in an inflation neutral setting) there is going to be upward momentum building in interest rates. Of course, if you can know that inflation will go up or down, you should factor that into your assumptions about the momentum of bond interest as well.

In this article: TYX, TNX
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