Daniel Lacalle Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
PhD Economist, Fund Manager

Daniel Lacalle is a PhD in Economy and fund manager. He holds the CIIA financial analyst title, with a post graduate degree in IESE and a master’s degree in economic investigation (UCV).

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The “Great Reset” And The Risk Of Greater Interventionism
Global debt is expected to soar to a record $277 trillion by the end of the year, according to the Institute of International Finance. Developed markets’ total debt - government, corporate and households - jumped to 432% of GDP in the third quarter.
Is There Really A China Economic Miracle?
The year 2020 will be an extremely tough year for the European economy. Added to an unprecedented drop is a strong impact in the fourth quarter due to the new lockdowns.
Brokers’ “Biden Trade” May Be Misguided
Many experts have rushed to make what has been regarded as “Biden trade” calls. The “Biden trade” is a recommendation to invest in assets that may benefit from a Democratic presidency judging by the policies announced throughout the campaign.
Inflation Is Not A Social Policy
Central banks continue to be obsessed with inflation. Current monetary policy is like the behavior of a reckless driver running at 200 miles per hour, looking at the rear-view mirror and thinking “we have not crashed yet, let’s accelerate”.
Central Bank Digital Currency, A Growth Or Financial Repression Tool?
The main central banks have been discussing the idea of implementing a digital currency. The rationale behind it escapes many citizens. It is basically another step in the effort to gradually get rid of physical currencies.
No. More Debt Is Not The Answer
Unconventional monetary policy was not implemented because governments spent too little, but because governments spent too much, and could not finance themselves without central bank quantitative easing and asset purchases.
Furloughed Jobs Disguise The Eurozone Employment Crisis
Eurostat said it estimates that over 15.6 million people in the EU and around 13.2 million in the euro area were unemployed in August. Compared with July, the number of unemployed increased by 238,000 in the EU and 251,000 in the euro area.
Fundamentals Do Matter
Following the central bank only works in the United States and particularly in technology companies. In Europe, following the central bank is not only a bad idea. It is counterproductive.
New Lockdowns Could Lead Europe To Economic Depression
European economies cannot survive a new series of lockdowns, even if governments call them “targeted”. Why?
The Recovery Stalls
The Economic Sentiment Index of the European Commission for August shows that the recovery of the European economy is slowing down.
The U.S. Will Not Recover Pre-Crisis Jobs Copying The Eurozone Policies
The employment recovery in the United States has been a positive surprise for most commentators, but the path to full employment will not be achieved putting brakes on job creation and investment.
The U.S. Dollar Collapse Is Greatly Exaggerated
The US Dollar Index has lost 10% from its March highs, and many have started to speculate about the likely collapse of the US Dollar as world reserve currency due to this weakness. These wild speculations need to be debunked.
Bankruptcies Rise Despite Trillions Of Liquidity
Despite an $11 trillion liquidity injection and government aid in 2020, stocks and bonds at all-time highs and sovereign as well as corporate yields at all-time lows, companies are going bust at the fastest pace since the Great Depression.
Massive Stimulus Does Not Prevent Eurozone Slowdown
The ECB balance sheet has risen to 53.9% of GDP in July 2020. This compares to a 32% of the Federal Reserve and 33% of the Bank of England. This means a 1.78 trillion euro increase year-to-date.
The Jobless Recovery
Headline official unemployment rates are misleading due to different subsidies and furloughed jobs. If we use comparable figures, the United States inactive share of the labor force is significantly smaller than the same figure in the Eurozone.
The U.S. Economy Is Stronger Than The Eurozone
The US is showing resiliency and strength compared with other leading economies. The impact of the Covid-19 crisis is lower in the United States than in Japan, Germany, France, the average of the European Union 27 and the Euro-Area countries.
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