Daniel Lacalle Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
PhD Economist, Fund Manager

Daniel Lacalle is a PhD in Economy and fund manager. He holds the CIIA financial analyst title, with a post graduate degree in IESE and a master’s degree in economic investigation (UCV).

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Biden Stimulus Plan. Will It Work?
Many financial experts have rushed to make what has been regarded as “Biden trade” calls. The “Biden trade” is a synonym of a recommendation to invest in assets that may benefit from a Democratic presidency.
Central Banks Attack Cryptocurrencies
The main central banks of the world are increasing money supply in an uncontrolled way in what is the largest transfer of wealth from savers to governments so far.
Commodities Signal Stagflation Risk
The Bloomberg Commodity Index has bounced more than 2% in the first week of January. At the time of Jan. 10, most commodities are rising well above global GDP growth estimates.
Bitcoin Pop, Gold Support And The US Dollar
What is happening with Bitcoin; is gold a good opportunity now and will the US Dollar recover in 2021 are topics discussed in this video.
Brexit Deal Is Done
Brexit has been launched. The first thing we must be is intellectually honest and recognize that the estimates of an economic debacle post-referendum never happened, but the challenges are relevant.
This Time Is Not Different. More Debt, Less Growth
Global growth estimates look too optimistic. The consensus assumes a recovery of 4% globally in 2021, returning to the GDP of 2019 at the end of 2022.
Hyperinflation In 2021? Best Year In Two Decades? Outlook For 2021
In this interview we discuss the outlook for 2021, including inflation expectations, the US Dollar and the estimates that some investment banks have for the strongest recovery in two decades.
Why Are Mainstream Economic Forecasts So Often Wrong?
If we look at the track record of central banks, it is particularly poor in predicting inflation while large supranational entities tend to err on the side of optimism in GDP estimates.
The ECB’s Latest Big Mistake
Monetary policy in Europe has gone from being a tool to help states make structural reforms to become an excuse not to carry them out.
Expensive Markets Are More Dangerous Than You Think
Equity markets have not been this expensive so early into an economic recovery phase in the last twenty years. The Greed vs Fear Index also shows extreme optimism, while the Call to Put ratio in derivatives is also at multi-year highs
The “Great Reset” And The Risk Of Greater Interventionism
Global debt is expected to soar to a record $277 trillion by the end of the year, according to the Institute of International Finance. Developed markets’ total debt - government, corporate and households - jumped to 432% of GDP in the third quarter.
Is There Really A China Economic Miracle?
The year 2020 will be an extremely tough year for the European economy. Added to an unprecedented drop is a strong impact in the fourth quarter due to the new lockdowns.
Brokers’ “Biden Trade” May Be Misguided
Many experts have rushed to make what has been regarded as “Biden trade” calls. The “Biden trade” is a recommendation to invest in assets that may benefit from a Democratic presidency judging by the policies announced throughout the campaign.
Inflation Is Not A Social Policy
Central banks continue to be obsessed with inflation. Current monetary policy is like the behavior of a reckless driver running at 200 miles per hour, looking at the rear-view mirror and thinking “we have not crashed yet, let’s accelerate”.
Central Bank Digital Currency, A Growth Or Financial Repression Tool?
The main central banks have been discussing the idea of implementing a digital currency. The rationale behind it escapes many citizens. It is basically another step in the effort to gradually get rid of physical currencies.
No. More Debt Is Not The Answer
Unconventional monetary policy was not implemented because governments spent too little, but because governments spent too much, and could not finance themselves without central bank quantitative easing and asset purchases.
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