Claus Vistesen | TalkMarkets | Page 1
Chief Eurozone Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics
Contributor's Links: Alpha Sources.CV
Claus Vistesen is a Danish economist who specializes in macroeconomics. His primary research interests include demographics, macroeconomics and international finance which he practices as a research editor in London. He holds Master’s degrees in economics and finance from the Copenhagen ...more

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Things To Think About #1
Assuming for a moment, that central banks are able to make a transition towards either a 2% inflation target with wiggle-room, or a more implicit commitment to “low inflation” and “price stability” what will this look like?
In The Pipe, Five-By-Five
I recently said that markets were cruising for a bruising. For now, they’re just cruising, mirroring the path set by Corporal Ferro as she guides her drop ship to a perfect landing on LV-426 in James Cameron’s Aliens.
The BOJ And JPY And Some New Predictions On Global Fertility
Last week’s decision by the BOJ to raise its deposit rate above zero for the first time in 17 years cements the BOJ as a counter cyclical indicator, of sorts. Over the past 18 months the BOJ has stubbornly resisted calls to exit NIRP.
Cruising For A Bruising
We’re currently living in the soft landing, and it is pleasant indeed. But inflation numbers at the start of the year have put us on notice. Like the Magnificent Seven, hopes of a sustained soft landing in the economy are cruising for a bruising.
What To Do With High-Flying Tech At The Start Of 2024?
Here, I will do two things. First, I will look at the macro backdrop at the start of 2024, and secondly I will run through the portfolio, how it is doing, and what changes I have made, or intend to make, to beat my investments into shape for 2024.
Is A Soft Landing In The Bag?
According to U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen economists who predicted that a sustained period of high U.S. unemployment—and perhaps even recession—would be needed to bring down inflation are now “eating their words”.
The Great Bear Steepening
Everyone is talking about the sell-off in bonds these days. Yields on the US 10-year benchmark is up nearly 150bp since April, within touching distance of 5%, and 30-year yields are now just over 5%, up from 3.7% in April.
The Inflation And Interest Rate Shocks Are Fading; What Next?
Interest rates will stop rising, and questions will turn to whether central banks have over-tightened as inflation comes down and growth falters. We could even see rate cuts by key central banks at the start of next year.
Japan's Disappearing Population
Japan invariably looms as the central case study for the economic and societal effects of rapid fertility decline, population decline, and aging. And Japan is about to get older, still.
Goldilocks
Someone has to say it, and it might as well be me. Markets have a distinct 'Goldilocks' feel about them at the moment. This is a story about two trends; easing inflation and economies which are neither too hot nor too cold.
Kinky Economics - When Must Fiscal Policy Tighten To Combat Inflation?
The prevailing mood in global macro discussions seems to be as follows; inflation is past its peak, but it is set to remain a lot higher for a lot longer than initially anticipated.
The Burn From The Churn
The clue to the past year’s performance is in the title. Many of the classic value sectors—energy stocks in particular—roared higher last year, leaving the erstwhile high-flying growth stocks for dead. Last year’s winners are this year’s losers.
The Looming Downturn In Capex And The Rise Of EVs
The key question remains whether a slowdown in investment and aggregate demand is adequately priced-in by equities. I doubt it.
Can We Pull Off A Soft Landing?
Central bank hiking cycles in the developed world are slowly but surely coming to an end, raising the question of whether they have pulled off a soft landing.
A Change In Focus?
The panic brought on by the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature, and the shotgun wedding between UBS and Credit Suisse has not produced a crisis, at least not yet. The bad news is that it could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.
Systemic?
The big news in financial markets is the demise of Silicon Valley Bank. You’ll read many versions of this, but I’ll try to sketch what everyone agrees on. I will then highlight some of the areas where there should be scope to make, or lose, money.
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