Claus Vistesen Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Chief Eurozone Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics
Contributor's Links: Alpha Sources.CV

Claus Vistesen is a Danish economist who specializes in macroeconomics. His primary research interests include demographics, macroeconomics and international finance which he practices as a research editor in London. He holds Master’s degrees ... more

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Time To Buy?
It’s pretty rough out there in financial markets. Stocks are still falling, notwithstanding the odd counter-rally here and there, and yields are still rising, leaving investors with little in the way of a place to hide.
Back To The Macro Basics
"Where are we in the business cycle?" is a question macroeconomists often are asked by investors.
The Inversion
To the extent that the inverted yield curve is associated with the expectation of an aggressive Fed hiking cycle in response to inflation, it presents investors with a number of straightforward bets. Here, I run through the three most obvious ones.
Are You Not Entertained?
It’s possible that the war in Ukraine eventually knocks growth to such an extent, via inflation driven demand destruction, as to bring both monetary and fiscal stimulus back on the table.
The Thousand Cuts
Equities seem to be in the throes of the death of a thousand cuts at the moment. The rebound towards the end of January from the initial swoon was reversed last week, and at this point, a new low is all but certain.
Where Is The Fed's Put?
This week has been dominated by a discussion market participants will be familiar with; the strike price of the Fed put. For the uninitiated, this is the threshold at which the FOMC will step in and support markets. So, where is it?
Mark To Market
I thought that I would have a look at my own financial performance in 2021. In preview, I did alright, but not as well as the market. Let's take a look at what my portfolio held and how well it did.
EC Omicron Flattens The Yield Curve
The arrival of the Omicron variant seems to have had two relatively predictable effects on financial markets. Volatility has shot higher, and the yield curve has flattened.
EC The Latest Front In The Macro Wars
The question we need to ask is whether there are conditions under which policy tightening—both fiscal and monetary—to rein in demand are optimal or desirable in an economic sense, even if it means unemployment going up. The answer is yes.
Mistakes Happen
Everyone often looks up the same price in the morning to get a feeling of where sentiment is. It’s often one of the big ones; the S&P 500, the long bond, or gold. Recently, everyone's been following the bloodbath in short-term interest rate markets.
EC Make Your Bets
Equities are a sideshow compared to the drama in rates. While economists are still busily debating whether inflation is here to stay, and whether monetary policy should respond, the reality is that it already is.
Wanted: A Theory Of Inflation
The more I think about the current debate about inflation, the more I am inclined towards the following remarkable conclusion: we do not currently have a good framework to explain inflation, neither cyclically nor structurally.
The Meaning Of Transitory
The community has been busy in the past few months educating each other about what inflation is and what it isn’t. To re-cap, just because prices are going up doesn’t mean that inflation is. Inflation is the rate at which prices are advancing.
Volatility Selling Is Back
In old-school assets, the overarching theme at the moment seems that the vol-sellers are back in charge. The VIX has hurtled lower, to just over 15, and at this rate it will soon be in the low teens.
No News Is Good News
As the US and UK economies are hopefully about to provide the first glimpse of what post-virus pent-up demand looks like, investors are left contemplating whether reflation—and the associated shift in asset prices— is actually sustainable.
GameStop - Game Over
Market observers and participants have been distracted by the battle between Reddit’s plucky retail investors and short-selling hedge funds over the fate of GameStop. But for the rest overall trend in financial markets, it's game on.
1 to 16 of 57 Posts
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