Claus Vistesen Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Chief Eurozone Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics
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Claus Vistesen is a Danish economist who specializes in macroeconomics. His primary research interests include demographics, macroeconomics and international finance which he practices as a research editor in London. He holds Master’s degrees ... more

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Get Ready
Last week’s price action provided a foundation for markets to get an answer to the question on everyone’s mind. The climb in equities and the decline in the dollar are interesting in their own right, but I am keeping my eyes on the US bond market.
Take A Step Back
Investors are perturbed by two trends. Firstly, they are watching the crash in oil prices. The second is that almost everyone seems skeptical about the sustainability, I even dare say “fairness”, of the rally in equities.
When Narratives Break
Everybody knows the feeling that they’re getting more than they bargained for, and I suspect we’re about to see a crack in the market narrative along those lines. Let me explain.
Is It Priced In?
There are so many things we don’t know, so let’s start with the few things we do...
What Happens Next?
Last week’s price action was one for the history books,.
The Odd Man Out
It has become increasingly fashionable to direct scorn and ridicule at the so-called equity Perma bears. This is understandable, to a point.
While We Wait For The Correction
Prices will likely be higher a year from now, but investors are on thin ice in the near term.
Is Global Growth Picking Up?
Equities are still doing great, and vol-sellers remain in charge, driving the VIX steadily towards the single-digit territory.
Not Long Now
Two things currently are serving to make sure that markets resemble deer caught in the headlights.
Anticipation Is Everything
Markets have made their bet on further monetary easing, and they’re now waiting for central banks to deliver.
Front-Running Easy Money
The three-month stock-to-bond ratios in the U.S. and Europe have soared, indicating that equities should lose momentum in Q2 at the expense of a further decline in bond yields.
Are Bonds Setting A Trap?
The easiest way for U.S. bond markets to entice investors to abandon their obsession with a flattening yield curve—and whether it’ll soon invert—always was to steepen it.
The Grand Finale
We are due a fall in U.S. bond yields, potentially in both the 2y and 10y but almost certainly in the latter. I reckon that this happens alongside, or right after, a final moonshot in the dollar.
Interest Rates Correlation With Equity Prices? Its Complicated
Markets were mulling familiar themes last week. Will a wider U.S. twin deficit change the rules for the dollar and treasuries and is elevated volatility here to stay in equities?
All Aboard The Reflation Train?
One week does not make a trend, but the path toward a new reflation trade is simple. The dip in U.S. core inflation is temporary and political uncertainty will fade, prompting investors to focus on the bright side.
All The Bogeymen Are Here
As I peer across markets and economies, I wonder if we are getting close to a tipping point. The eye of the storm is literally the U.S. where the layers of economic and political uncertainty are now so thick that I am not even sure where to start.
1 to 16 of 40 Posts
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