Chris Ciovacco Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
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Chris Ciovacco is the founder and CEO of Ciovacco Capital Management (CCM), an independent money management firm serving individual investors nationwide.

The thoroughly researched and backtested CCM Market Model answers these important questions:

(1) How much should we ... more

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Realistic Expectations
We all know even in the context of a bullish trend, the stock market does not go up every day, and yet, for some reason, it is difficult for all of us to remember that during inevitable drawdowns.
Retest Scenario Gains Traction
Unless you believe you can predict the future with 100% certainty, it is prudent to have a mixed allocation that allows you a migration path to handle all four scenarios.
Market Breadth Shows Signs Of Life
There are numerous ways to measure and track stock market breadth.
Market Scenarios
Unless you believe you can predict the future with 100% certainty (something we all know is not possible), it is prudent to have a mixed allocation currently that allows you a migration path to handle all four scenarios.
Key Takeaway From Monday's Session - April 6
No one knows with certainty which path the market will take in the coming days and weeks. Risk management is about assessing odds and making adjustments when the odds shift in a material manner.
Focused And Flexible
We have a wildly oversold market that is, by historical standards, overdue for a 10-20% rally. It is possible the third bill making its way through Congress could bring back some buying conviction.
Credit Spreads Reach Rare Heights
Credit spreads speak to economic and financial system confidence.
Walking Forward
The present-day VIX is based on a “new methodology”. Since there is more historical data for the original methodology, we used VXO for this comparison.
Fed Launches Largest Set Of Stimulus In History
The Federal Reserve took extremely aggressive action on Sunday evening.
EC Rare Oversold Readings
A wide range of stock market breadth charts have reached oversold readings; some of the readings have reached “never seen before” levels, which is remarkable.
These Charts Say 2018 Was A Major Bottom
The S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index (BPSPX) recently completed a bullish turn that has only taken place two previous times since 1996.
Odds Of A Low Vs. Additional Pain
Market action Monday showed signs of high conviction to sell relative to the conviction to buy.
Repeating Patterns In Human Behavior
In 2018-2019, market participants were concerned about Fed policy, slowing global growth, and the U.S./China trade war. The S&P 500 dropped 19.78%, allowing for the borderline silly “longest bull market ever” narrative to carry forward.
Last Time This Happened...
One year ago, the stock market was dealing with an unfriendly Federal Reserve and concerns about the trade war.
Evidence Of A Broad Swing In Global Stock Momentum
Institutions typically lead in the stock market and retail investors follow, which is why equity-based mutual funds and ETFs have seen record outflows in 2019, but the stock market has still gone up.
Global Dow Nails Down Bullish Signal
At the end of November, monthly CCI completed a momentum round trip by closing above 100 after closing below -100 in late 2018. CCI helps us track market momentum.
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