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Chris Ciovacco is the founder and CEO of Ciovacco Capital Management (CCM), an independent money management firm serving individual investors nationwide.

The thoroughly researched and backtested CCM Market Model answers these important questions:

(1) How much should we ... more


Latest Posts
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These Charts Say 2018 Was A Major Bottom
The S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index (BPSPX) recently completed a bullish turn that has only taken place two previous times since 1996.
Odds Of A Low Vs. Additional Pain
Market action Monday showed signs of high conviction to sell relative to the conviction to buy.
Repeating Patterns In Human Behavior
In 2018-2019, market participants were concerned about Fed policy, slowing global growth, and the U.S./China trade war. The S&P 500 dropped 19.78%, allowing for the borderline silly “longest bull market ever” narrative to carry forward.
Last Time This Happened...
One year ago, the stock market was dealing with an unfriendly Federal Reserve and concerns about the trade war.
Evidence Of A Broad Swing In Global Stock Momentum
Institutions typically lead in the stock market and retail investors follow, which is why equity-based mutual funds and ETFs have seen record outflows in 2019, but the stock market has still gone up.
Global Dow Nails Down Bullish Signal
At the end of November, monthly CCI completed a momentum round trip by closing above 100 after closing below -100 in late 2018. CCI helps us track market momentum.
Investors Run From Stocks At Record Pace
Given we know extreme sentiment can be a powerful contrary indicator, we would expect exuberant investors to rush into stock-based investments near a major stock market peak, which is exactly what happened in the year 2000.
December 2019 Looks Nothing Like December 2018
Human beings tend to remember emotional events, especially painful events. December 2018 falls into the painful category, given the S&P 500 lost 14.92% between the end of November and Christmas Eve.
This Signal Points To More Upside In Stocks
The MSCI World Index tracks over one thousand large and mid-cap stocks in twenty-two developed countries, covering 85% of the market capitalization in those regions.
History Says Improving Stock Market Sentiment Can Be Bullish
Like many fundamental and technical tools in the world of investing, the utility of investor sentiment changes based on market conditions.
Stock Performance Following Six Straight Weeks Of Gains In Q4
In early October, a weak ISM Manufacturing Survey was followed by talk of an imminent recession.
Cash Balances Could Push Stock Market Much Higher
It is easy to understand how money market balances reached extremely high levels in March 2009, given investors had just lived through a painful 56% drop in the S&P 500.
Today Looks Nothing Like A Blow-Off Stock Market Top
Relative to history, the terms “melt-up” and “blow-off” do not apply to the facts we have in hand today.
Recycled DeMark Counts And S&P 500 Performance
While there are some legitimate short-term concerns related to sentiment and market breadth, we also must consider the potential bullish implications of a series of extremely rare DeMark signals that have appeared on the daily chart of the S&P 500.
The Long-Term Message From Transportation Stocks
After experiencing resistance, the Dow Jones Transportation Average finally broke out in December 2012, which provided another indication of increasing risk appetite.
Signs Of Risk Appetite
Despite very little hard evidence a recession was imminent, market participants have been highly risk-averse in recent months.
1 to 16 of 341 Posts
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