Chris Ciovacco Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
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Chris Ciovacco is the founder and CEO of Ciovacco Capital Management (CCM), an independent money management firm serving individual investors nationwide.

The thoroughly researched and backtested CCM Market Model answers these important questions:

(1) How much should we ... more


Latest Posts
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Market Hovering Near Important Guideposts
The longer a market can stay above the 200-day in the early stages of a rally attempt, the higher the odds we are dealing with a new trend rather than a countertrend move that will be followed by lower lows.
This Never Happened In The 1974, 2001, And 2008 Bear Markets
The S&P 500 closed above the monthly Bollinger Band centerline (a.k.a. center band) on January 31, 2019. The January print occurred after the S&P 500 closed below the centerline in December, but above the lower Bollinger Band.
What Does History Tell Us About Weak Profiles Near The 200-day?
After a plunge in the stock market and within the context of a still weak long-term trend profile, seeing the S&P close above its 200-day moving average is far from an “all clear” signal.
Stock Market Crosscurrents
As numerous historical examples illustrate, when markets try to rally from a very weak trend profile, bottoms are typically a give-and-take process that occurs over several weeks or months.
How Much Improvement?
The CCM ETF Stack Rank Model shows the strongest trends on multiple timeframes (1-month to 1-year) are dominated by defensive ETFs and ETFs that benefit from lower/stable interest rates and a weaker U.S. dollar.
Similar Breadth Thrusts
Like the slope of the S&P 500’s 200-day moving average, the similar historical breadth thrust cases tell us to be prepared to add to our equity exposure in the coming days if the hard data and observable evidence can continue to improve.
Key Levels For A Trend Flip
If the market is going to reestablish a long-term bullish trend, there is typically time to adjust allocations along the way.
Reversals And Countertrend Moves Typically Take Time To Develop
Since investor psychology tends to be similar after a sharp plunge in the stock market, subsequent bottoms and/or countertrend rallies often share similar characteristics.
Maximum Flexibility
Corrections, bear markets, and the process of forming a lasting bottom can all lead to frustrating volatility and whipsaws. The recent 2018 plunge could lead to much lower lows in stocks or a bottoming formation.
Fed: Then And Now
Based on early returns, the Fed seemed to once again greatly underestimate the market’s concerns related to the economy and monetary policy.
Stocks: Reasons To Be Concerned
It is fair to say the market has three primary areas of concern: trade, Fed policy, and global growth. There is no question the news on the China/USA front has improved in recent weeks but the market remains concerned about growth/earnings.
Is Volume/Breadth Aligned With Bullish Case? - Tuesday, Dec. 5
If we fast forward to December 2017, is market breadth/volume aligning with or contradicting bullish data we have in hand?
The Big Picture In Three Charts
Since it is an equally-weighted and broad index, the Value Line Geometric Index is a good way to monitor the average stock.
Did Market Breadth Confirm The New Highs In Stocks?
Strong market breadth means a high percentage of stocks are making new highs as the major indexes make new highs. Strong breadth also aligns with widespread confidence in stocks and the economy.
Tech Stocks: 2017 Looks Nothing Like 2000
It may be surprising to some the Nasdaq made zero progress over a 6,083 calendar-day period between March 10, 2000 and November 3, 2016. The Nasdaq closed at 5,048 when the dot-com bubble peaked in 2000.
This Indicator Had A Divergence In Both 2000 And 2007; How Does It Look Today?
Market breadth speaks to the number of stocks participating in an advance. Strong market breadth means a high percentage of stocks are making new highs as the major indexes make new highs.
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