Chris Ciovacco Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
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Chris Ciovacco is the founder and CEO of Ciovacco Capital Management (CCM), an independent money management firm serving individual investors nationwide.

The thoroughly researched and backtested CCM Market Model answers these important questions:

(1) How much should we ... more


Latest Posts
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FV Will The Weak Jobs Report Reignite Or Derail The Bull?
Friday's labor report came in well below expectations. What can we learn from the market's reaction?
FV The Most Important Charts On Wall Street
Reviewing charts on a wide variety of timeframes sheds light on what to look for in terms of asset class and sector leadership for the remainder of 2021.
Noteworthy Differences Between 2018 And 2020
The S&P 500 peaked on January 26, 2018, which kicked off a period of wild swings and consolidation that lasted into 2020. The three biggest bearish episodes began in Q1 2018, Q4 2018, and Q1 2020.
FV Are New Highs Coming In Stocks Before Year's End?
Several new stock setups have formed in recent weeks. What does it tell us about longer-term stock market odds?
Realistic Expectations
We all know even in the context of a bullish trend, the stock market does not go up every day, and yet, for some reason, it is difficult for all of us to remember that during inevitable drawdowns.
Retest Scenario Gains Traction
Unless you believe you can predict the future with 100% certainty, it is prudent to have a mixed allocation that allows you a migration path to handle all four scenarios.
Market Breadth Shows Signs Of Life
There are numerous ways to measure and track stock market breadth.
Market Scenarios
Unless you believe you can predict the future with 100% certainty (something we all know is not possible), it is prudent to have a mixed allocation currently that allows you a migration path to handle all four scenarios.
Key Takeaway From Monday's Session - April 6
No one knows with certainty which path the market will take in the coming days and weeks. Risk management is about assessing odds and making adjustments when the odds shift in a material manner.
Focused And Flexible
We have a wildly oversold market that is, by historical standards, overdue for a 10-20% rally. It is possible the third bill making its way through Congress could bring back some buying conviction.
Credit Spreads Reach Rare Heights
Credit spreads speak to economic and financial system confidence.
Walking Forward
The present-day VIX is based on a “new methodology”. Since there is more historical data for the original methodology, we used VXO for this comparison.
Fed Launches Largest Set Of Stimulus In History
The Federal Reserve took extremely aggressive action on Sunday evening.
EC Rare Oversold Readings
A wide range of stock market breadth charts have reached oversold readings; some of the readings have reached “never seen before” levels, which is remarkable.
These Charts Say 2018 Was A Major Bottom
The S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index (BPSPX) recently completed a bullish turn that has only taken place two previous times since 1996.
Odds Of A Low Vs. Additional Pain
Market action Monday showed signs of high conviction to sell relative to the conviction to buy.
1 to 16 of 355 Posts
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