Author of "Money Cycles"
Atle Willems is the author of "Money Cycles - The Curse of an Elastic Money Supply".


The Only Reason Stocks Have Been Surging
Y/Y growth rate in the money supply and the Fed balance sheet.
Hardly A Recipe For Economic Success
Ever more money being pumped into the U.S. economy, with less and less being channeled to the manufacturing industry.
Stock Market Euphoria Alert - The CAPE To Saving Rate Ratio Surges 6.2% In A Month
The euphoric heights of this ratio indicate troubles ahead for both the U.S. stock market and the economy in 2018.
Why The Stock Market Might Move Higher In The Short Term, Revisited
The combination of a slower money supply growth rate and record low interest rates indicate the stock market is now exceedingly dependent on another greater fool.
Highly Unusual Developments In The U.S. Money Supply
The money supply growth rate is on course to turn negative. This deflationary pressure is a big negative for stocks and will more likely than not trigger a stock market sell-off unless the trend turns soon.
The U.S. Stock Market Risk Indicator - Future Returns Will Be Poor At Best
This two-part indicator suggests a substantial risk for poor future stock market returns. At best.


Latest Comments
You've Been Warned: The Money Supply Growth Rate Continues To Slide, Drops Below 6%
6 years ago

Gary, I'm not quite sure how the Fed can be more "countercyclical in downturns". It is Fed intervention, and the fractional reserve banking system it maintains, that cause the financial pain.

Now Is The Best Time To Be Heavily Long U.S. Stocks
6 years ago

I had to read this article as your view is in stark contrast to mine. With valuations at record highs, interest rates moving up, bank lending growth in rapid decline, and the shorter term growth rate of the money supply just having moved into negative territory, my conclusion is the exact opposite. It will be an interesting year.

In this article: VIX, SPX
Economic Stimulus Does Not Stimulate Economic Growth
6 years ago

See your point, but not sure how that could be done fairly. Many things have gone wrong, not just on the money side. One thing is for sure though: people want and need more purchasing power. That can only be achieved with more production as HM would only bring forth additional price inflation.

Economic Stimulus Does Not Stimulate Economic Growth
6 years ago

Yes, they were all bailed out at the expense of others, totally agree. It was a great injustice on a grand scale.

We don't however need yet more AD unbacked by production as that is what has been happening for decades, especially the most recent one. What is needed is increased production. Further increases in the MS will not achieve that (in fact, it will achieve the opposite!). The only sustainable solution IMO to this monetary problem is to implement a largely inelastic currency. Sadly, this option is never discussed by policymakers to my knowledge.

Economic Stimulus Does Not Stimulate Economic Growth
6 years ago

But why does the money supply need to increase at all?

Economic Stimulus Does Not Stimulate Economic Growth
6 years ago

What would helicopter money fix?

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Money Cycles: The Curse of an Elastic Money Supply
Atle Willems
CreateSpace Independent Publishing

You might have been told differently, but most economies today are never actually economically stable. Under current monetary regimes, financial stability is only a temporary phenomenon as economies around the world are in fact inherently unstable by design. Presently, this is the case more so than perhaps ever before. In "Money Cycles", the curse of an elastic money supply is explained in detail and its effects on economic progress in general and stock market valuations in particular are exposed. The author presents a comprehensive account of the money creation process, how to compile accurate and relevant money supply aggregates, and how the money cycle is the main determinant of the business cycle. In the final part of the book, the Austrian theory of the business cycle is applied to demonstrate how the money cycle determines stock market booms and the crashes that must follow.