Arthur Donner | TalkMarkets | Page 28
Economic Consultant
Arthur Donner is a Toronto-based economic consultant with a lively interest and involvement in economic policy issues. Arthur has the ability to make complicated economic issues understandable to widely different audiences. Consequently, his career has moved between universities, governments and ...more

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The Euro Area’s Economy Continues To Improve, Though There Is Still Considerable Economic Slack
The euro-area economy strengthened in the second quarter as more of its member countries joined into the recovery.
The Employment Rates For Male Workers And Youth Have Still Not Caught Up With 2008 Levels
It is quite evident that the world’s job market recovery since 2010 has been uneven among countries and between different demographic groups.
Canada Posts The Fastest Population Growth Rate Among The G7 Group Of Countries
About two-thirds of Canada's population growth from 2011 to 2016 was the result of net migration (the difference between the number of immigrants and emigrants).
Residential Construction Will Boost The Canadian Economy In The Third Quarter
Canadian housing starts fell in September after eight straight monthly gains. Nonetheless, the housing construction sector remains quite strong and the data suggest that residential construction will boost economic growth in the third quarter.
Canadian Full-Time Jobs Rebounded In September
The Canadian job market has recovered strongly over the past year. In September 112,000 new, full-time jobs were created, even though part-time employment shrunk by an almost equal number.
The Mystery Of Low U.S. Inflation
The Fed initially argued that the fall off in the inflation rate was due to “transitory” factors, i.e. special one-off situations that result in some prices temporarily falling.
Despite Continuing Low Inflation, The U.S. Has Begun To Normalize Its Monetary Policy
Assuming tapering holds at $50 billion per quarter into 2019, the Fed’s balance sheet would drop below $3 trillion in 2020 at which point the next discussion will be how big should the Fed's balance sheet remain once tapering is over.
World Economic Growth Improved In The Second Quarter Of 2017
In terms of the second quarter of 2017, most trading countries posted stronger growth rates than in the previous quarter. Real GDP grew faster in both the advanced economies (excluding the U.S.) and EM economies, continuing a trend from early 2016.
The World’s Economic Recovery Has Momentum, But Growth Is Still Is Subpar
Global GDP is currently expected to increase by around 3.5% in 2017 and 3.7% in 2018 compared with 3% growth in 2016. Moreover, the global economic upturn has become a bit more synchronized across the advanced and emerging market economies.
The Unionization Rate In Canada’s Private Sector Continues To Decline
The unionization rate in Canada is still declining, and as a result worker economic power in the marketplace has also been shrinking.
Canada’s Has Continued Potential For Non-Inflationary Job Growth
The Canadian economy created 374,000 new jobs between August 2016 and August 2017. This represented an extremely rapid expansion of the job market.
Canada’s Economy Has Accelerated Sharply This Year
Canada’s blistering growth rate of the first-half of 2017 will likely not be repeated in the second-half of this year. This is because both job creation and household incomes are expected to grow more slowly over the next two quarters.
A Strong Currency Has Lowered Inflation In The Euro Area
The European Central Bank (ECB) has had some success in boosting economic growth and job creation in the Euro Zone, but at the same time, its aggressive quantitative easing program has not succeeded in raising inflation to a more desired level.
Brexit Uncertainty Is Already Affecting Investment And Location Decisions
Under the agreed timetable, the Brexit decision to take Britain completely out of the European Union, is scheduled to take full effect in March 2019.
The UK Economy Suffered A Notable Slowdown This Year Due To Rising Inflation And Concerns Over Brexit
The UK economy grew only 0.3% in April-June, following an even slower expansion of 0.2% in the first quarter.
Political Conflicts Are At A Record High Since The Trump Presidency
Even though the U.S. political environment is still quite volatile, at least the chance of an imminent government shutdown has receded.
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