Reader Steven Kopits asks me to “show us the math” for why the increase in multiple job holders cannot account for the majority of the discrepancy between net job creation from 2022M03 until 2022M11. Here it is:

Figure 1: Difference in net job creation from nonfarm payroll series minus civilian employment series, since 2022M03 (dark blue), increase in multiple job holders since 2022M03, assuming workers increase from one to two jobs (green), and from one to three jobs (sky blue), all in 000’s, seasonally adjusted. Multiple job holder series are BLS series LNU02026625, LNU02026631. Source: BLS via FRED, and author’s calculations.

In order for multiple job holders to account for the full discrepancy, each worker who had one job at 2022M03 would’ve had to take on an additional 13 jobs by 2022M11. That seems unlikely. Just sayin’.

Personally, I put more credence in mismeasurement primarily — but not exclusively — in the household survey.

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