At least somebody still believes that as of a couple weeks ago.

Figure 1, Top Panel: GDP (black), GDO (tan), GDP+ (green), all in bn.Ch.2012$ SAAR. GDP+ based on cumulated growth rates, scaled to 2018Q1. Bottom Panel: Coincident index (blue), nonfarm payroll employment (green), aggregate weekly hours (tan), civilian employment (red), vehicle miles traveled (purple), all in logs, 2021Q4=0. Q4 observations for employment, hours, based on October and November data. Lilac shading denotes peak-to-trough hypothetical recession. Source: BEA via FRED, BEA, Philadelphia Fed via FRED, Philadelphia Fed, BLS via FRED, FHA via FRED, and author’s calculations. 

Note that GDP, GDO, and VMT are the three series that declined from 2021Q4. However, we know that GDP and GDO will subsequently revised (and GDP+ rose). (Recall, using the 2-consecutive quarter rule on current GDP data, there is no recession of 2001.) Note further that nonfarm payroll and aggregate weekly hours will likely be revised upward, given the preliminary benchmark revision.

Hence, I am still skeptical that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee will declare a recession in 2022H1. But since all the variables will be revised going forward (except perhaps VMT), one cannot be certain.

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