“2023 GDP growth expected at +0.5% (median forecast, 4Q/4Q); 2024 expected at +1.7%” (SIFMA stands for Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association) From the Report.

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Source: SIFMA, June 7, 2023.

The survey median response is for one-quarter of negative growth. In each quarter, there’s always one respondent that thinks that there’ll be negative (or positive) growth, so there’s some dispersion.

Source: SIFMA, June 7, 2023.

As I noted in yesterday’s post, the FT-IGM survey a quarter ago indicated a modal response for recession start at 2023Q3-Q4.

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