From CBO today:

Figure 1: Federal budget balance to GDP (blue), Federal budget balance without automatic stabilizers to potential GDP (tan). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Orange shading denotes Trump administration. Source: BEA, CBO (February; June), and author’s calcuations.

In the last complete quarter before Trump’s administration, the cyclically adjusted budget balance to potential GDP under then current law was 2.8% of GDP. In the last quarter before the pandemic (NBER peak 2019Q4), the balance was 4.7%. In the last complete quarter of the Trump administration (2020Q4), the balance was 7.2%. The balance in 2022Q3 was 3.8%.

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