The USDA’s planting intentions stocks reports again provided some unexpected surprises with the delayed access to the numbers when logging into the USDA’s site.  There were twists in both the US Planting survey and quarterly stocks reports that impacted prices, particularly in soybeans. 

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In soybean, the producers US plantings for 2023 was left unchanged ay 87.5 million vs the trade’s estimate of 88.24 million. The big surprise was in the March 1 stocks that were only 1.685 million bu, down 57 million from the trade average & 247 million last year on March 1. Using some solid crush and export for the quarter, this projects the US soybeans residual demand only dipped 6 million from last fall’s extremely large 186 million bu in export transit &  seed bean processing. This level suggests that 2022’s US soybean crop size could 60-80 million too large when comparing previous residual changes. Instead of 210, we might be at 150 million bu now.

Corn’s 92 million planting intentions were 1.1 million higher than trade’s 90.9 estimate and last year’s 88.58 seedings. A bit negative, but like soybeans March 1 stocks were lower than expected at 7.4 billion bu., 70 million lower than trade average. Given the past quarter’s ethanol and exports disappearances, this projects a slightly higher feed demand of 1.450 billion (4% lower) than trade’s 1.370 billion  or an 80 million higher usage.

US total wheat’s seedings we higher than expected by 355,000 at 49.855 million acre. Surprisingly in was in winter wheat not spring wheat that retreated by 265,000.  Given the poor W wheat ratings this doesn’t suggest larger hard red wheat bushels to me. This month’s March 1 stocks were 12 million higher than expected suggesting reduced wheat feeding that are only at 80 million bu in the latest USDA balance sheet. 

 The US N Plains producers planting ideas for 2023 appear very optimistic given the current snow bank across ND, MN and SD and another 12-18 inch of snow forecast in the next week.  In corn, these 3 states intentions total 1.3 million of the US 3.4 million increase while their 2023 bean seeding expectations are for a 1.1 million jump while the US overall seeding are projected to remain unchanged.   The reduced yield potential from this region can impact the US 2023 corn and soybean yield forecasts too.

Overall, the US planting and stocks reports suggest that 2023 growing season will need to improve near term for any possibility of US output to achieve the US’s lofty Ag Outlook  output and stocks at this time.  Protein has thrust its need in the US ag prices!!!

More By This Author:

Strong Ag Prices Could Return Total US Plantings To Recent Levels
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Strong 1st Half Exports & A Smaller US 2022 Crop Tightens Stocks