Modest tightening not just by the US Fed (eventually) but by markets all by themselves as they perceive 'snugging-up' of global liquidity in 2021's second half, might well be a concern for the foreign markets as well as for our S&P.

However, there are new variants of COVID spreading, and if we see 'rebounds' of the virus this Fall, that could put a damper on some of the growth estimates out there. It's very hard to project, because (for-instance) right now many are opening-up economies, and others not. Singapore is reopening widely, while Japan is betwixt and between about the Olympics. Then there's Indonesia, for now better outcomes, while nearby Malaysia is locking-down fully yet-again.

So yes, 'if' there is modest tightening (and that's not certain regardless of what the FOMC says this month) it would imply most multiples remain constrained, so it would require earnings growth and/or upward guidance revisions being a key to take stocks higher. Having that guidance is absolutely at risk for now. It is also possible Gold works a little higher (Silver too) as Bitcoin's tarnished (GLD, SLV, BITCOMP).

As you know, I'm thinking we enter a rocky period again from perhaps early (ideally not this early) to mid-June, for 'awhile'. Probably the best 'actionable' advice I have given this year has been to 'not fight the Fed' and not short the Indexes, at least so far. The risk of meaningful declines is out there, but more on the order of timid interest in buying ahead of a testy Fed meeting ahead.

Investors that bailed because of overbought FANG stocks (we agreed on risk there and advocated that), but failed to see the rotation into other sectors like Oil, Banks & Industrials as we projected would take the helm, well they sure missed this market. I understand being conservative, but this market hasn't of course been a monolith since coming off our lows in March of 'last' year.

As for S&P, the prior straight-up trajectory is testament that virtually all signals that told investors to do anything but rotate (and definitely not short generally), have done them a disservice. This will change in the year's second half, but it is variable, very much depends on the global situation, and monetary policies if changed (such as early tapering), inflation, and oh...possible resurgence of COVID not so much in the U.S. (hopefully), but abroad. It's seeking targets.

As to indicators, when applied to the S&P 500, 15 of 22 chart indicators in one recent survey by Bloomberg, actually lost money, back-testing data showed. It just reinforces my rotation view about the strong S&P masking distribution in a slew of 'last year's' major pandemic winners, and a shift to small-cap and Oil. In a sense much of the market just now is flat, fatigued, or sort of neutral (SPX, SPY).

Meanwhile... on the COVID front many believe the pandemic to be over, and of course we hope it basically is, for the United States and 'parts' of Europe. So that is the reason Abbott sales of 'test' kits have collapsed. Testing will surely be an essential need for some time, and the concern of course is that people, by normal nature, go from one mood to the other, casting aside precautions at a pace rivaling COVID's spread last year. (Other companies, like Sorrento, are pending, not just for treatments, but a far cheaper mass-market antigen test.)

At the same time disturbing stories remind us that the virus is fighting-on too. For-instance, Malaysia is going back on lock-down, so is part of Australia that thought it was fine. And yet Indonesia and the Philippines seem fine now. For Japan it's really an open question (with 3% vaccinated), and India likely still is distorting the real numbers, which were already a horror.

Speaking of horrendous mistakes, Peru today more than doubled its 'official', coronavirus death toll, sadly becoming the country with the highest COVID-19 mortality per capita anywhere in the world. Brazil, where Sorrento (SRNE) and China are testing various vaccines treatments (or about to) has been a horror show itself, and probably understates the toll. It wouldn't surprise me if the US also vastly under-counted infections, but largely because many never got tested at all, vaccines or not, moderately ill or not. (I know people who purposely didn't get tested even though they presume that they had milder COVID cases.)

Basically just saying this isn't 'really' over, but there is progress. For most, it's not exactly time to take a 'summer sabbatical' in Europe, though tempting. (I certainly can't given ongoing recovery, but if totally well doubt I'd go yet.) Oh, by the way, what's the country with the 2nd highest mortality rate? Hungary. I will add that Budapest (and Vienna) are on my list if I ever do another jaunt.

As Americans reach 'herd immunity' (presuming that happens), relief will turn to anger as you already (and properly) see with revisiting how COVID began to circulate in the first place ('inadvertent lab release'). We hear it's conceivable the Chinese cover-up is wider than reported, as positivity may have been near rampant through the staffs of the Wuhan lab and related hospital. That would also be a logical explanation for why so many contracted it so fast there, and it also is an indictment of Beijing as the CCP had to know how serious it was.

Speaking of 'adversaries' (?), after today's cyberattack, The White House may cancel the Summit with Russia's Putin, or actually elevate its importance. We are at the point of demanding proper behavior by them or cause disruptions in their direction. While everyone talks of the blackmail cyberattacks, few will talk about Russian efforts to sow discord and animosity online, as they still do. It's not only elections that attract misbehavior intent on riling-up emotions.