Cautious optimism not only against backdrops of nearly unanimous Fed as well as geopolitical negativity, was the backdrop for us 'allowing' S&P again to try forging even higher after what overall was a prolonged rebound phase.

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Perhaps more interesting was a suspicion that the deviation between big-cap and small-caps might change, where the mega-caps ruled-the-roost (still do of course), while small-caps languished. Now they are less dormant, with slight signs of life being shown. That's even the case for a couple recent speculative picks I added to the 'sprinkling' of broken stocks believed capable of rebound.

Certainly Elon Musk's passive new investment in Twitter (9.2% stake taken TWTR) shows not just his growing influence, but denotes some are (properly I think) focused on corporate possibilities and deals, rather than mere macro bullish or bearish stance approaches, which most pundits or technicians embrace 'as if' the market was somehow a monolith, which it is not. The diversion between small and big alone proves that.

However so far the moves have been 'in-sync', either up or down from current levels by various sectors, and of course the overwhelming weight of Oil prices as relates to economic prospects and inflation. So the only monolithic aspect is the seemingly mostly-synonymous rallying or declining.

Oil is firming again as something we described last week is taking hold with a wider view: the idea that the SPR drain must be replaced, and also 'if' we do see a post-war time of calm, the demand for Oil will also remain fairly firm.

Also notable, our long-held (since 17) AMD today revealed buying Pensando for almost 2 billion, which helps them solidify their presence in 'Enterprise' as well as other areas AMD continue dominating. In-essence this strengthens their data-center business, and they've surpassed Intel in some ways for now at least. Separately I agree that the Street got too bullish too recently on big Banks, while last year we viewed Oils & Banks as the essential leaders. We point-out Banks have to compete, but they borrow short and lend long, hence their margins might get pressed a bit.

In-sum: 

The Musk Twitter purchase contributed to a jolt of energy today. Lots of small-caps came around in constructive fashions, and held through the day.

I think it's reasonably 'balanced' to hold those big-caps we've had aboard for a long time, and given the high levels of the S&P, focus on speculating in just a handful of smaller-caps, which were pummeled almost into oblivion, but which in a couple cases are merely nearing the threshold of actually maturing a bit.

Meanwhile the atrocities of war are broadly described in all media. What's not is the idea that all but the initials are on negotiated terms for a ceasefire. We'll see if anything comes of that in the days just ahead. The horror that induced a call for Putin to be put 'on trial' (I thought he crossed that Rubicon long ago) is presumably not going to prevent further discussions by both sides this week.

Fed Minutes and overall earnings 'estimates' this week might be key, and any selling we get on clarification of the 'hawkish' FOMC Minutes, might be baked in the cake already. However that's not to say the S&P's not stretched, it is. At the same time a myriad of smaller stocks are showing signs of life, for now.

Meanwhile a number of strategists continue to insist everything is terrible, with no consideration of foreign funds avoiding Asian stocks and so on during what is a terrible war. Ironically, once things settle down in Europe, you might see a bit of a throttling of funds flowing into the U.S.

Jamie Dimon today was warning that 'the stronger the economy the stronger the Fed', and roughly I'd concur. He concurs also about how tricky generating a 'soft landing' will be, and that's why I suggested 'harder' but not very hard, if all goes reasonably well. We don't want to see the Volcker approach, and I do not agree they must face that tradeoff, because much of this is Oil-related and thus geopolitically-related, which the Fed really won't have much influence on.

The bottom-line remains the same, an extended market which might get jittery into the FOMC Minutes, but the interesting part will be if that's absorbed and stocks firm further thereafter.

It's Spring, there is risk, but the broad market has not topped as such, even if those who focus on stocks 'as if' they were a monolith, contend that's so.