Around record S&P levels, discussions drone-on about crypto or the Fed, and inflation, along with vague discussions about returning risk from COVID.

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It is notable that worthy topics like 'monetary policy creativity' not Auctions (such as why the Fed's willing to reduce Americans buying power), or influences we will soon get from Quarterly-re-balancing. Or for that matter as one member astutely observed, what about the SEC Rule regarding hedge funds that may be significantly leveraged in a losing stock and not have adequate liquidity.

All that is worthy of exploration, but the market is sort of numb to intricacies at the moment, with the hurtle of simply another record S&P high evoking mostly a ho-hum response. That suggests either exhaustion, or continuation since if the bears really wanted an excuse for a break, they'd prefer seeing a 'spike' to a sharply higher level, and quickly. Hence an invitation to bail.

No such action has been forthcoming, and only tinges of froth at times. Now we have an already-noted Fed bank stress test, being trotted-out to justify the stage being set for buybacks and dividends, hence talk of better total return.

The seasonal pattern allowed a pullback before a feasible lift ahead of the 4th of July, and it's conceivable that last Friday's drop (on Expiration) was all we'll get, but we're not complacent about this market. I've explained my perception of some variables and will do so as needed, but I still think COVID's the biggest wild-card in the room (market), if the variant throws recoveries for a loop. For this concern I'm referring more globally than I am domestically. Like it or not it is globalism to a degree, and like with Oil vs. EV power, until things change it matters that existing systems (or supply chains) can handle demand. There's a lot of problems on that front right now, all the way down to container ships.

I have previously noted the 'two' stances of the WHO (which I'm often critical of but it seems is reforming itself a little more maturely). First they said do NOT give the COVID vaccine to children, then hours later hedged their initial statement with a 'clarification'. Probably today they regret the clarification, since the CDC came forth (properly) with a warning about both Moderna (MRNA) and Pfizer (PFE) vaccines in terms of myocarditis and pericarditis in younger people. Thankfully CBS gave a good example of a seemingly perfectly healthy athletic teenager who almost had the worst outcome (and a freaked mother) 2 hours after the 2nd shot. The report did not say he had a heart attack or congestive heart failure, but maybe that's exactly what happened. Finally a formal warning on the vaccines, while of course the pitch remains that benefits outweigh risks and so on.

Meanwhile there are nominal changes in action today. A real consolidation as it appears. Among individual stocks, LightPath (LPTH) got a bit of a bid again today, though there's no particular catalyst (we've noted gradually higher volume for a few days). However there's a sense of another upside pop looming 'soon'.

As to speculative Sorrento (SRNE), it's no surprise that it rallied, then pulled back just enough for day traders perhaps, before rebounding, typical for this stock. I'm a bit more relaxed about it's future, given the proximity to possible approvals (of course they could be denied), because the deal with the Navy suggest they've got to (common sense) have some clue about the reliability of tests and also efficacy of treatments, in-order to embrace Sorrento. No money directly, but it is pretty clear that would be forthcoming, and it sets a better overall 'tone'.

We view Sorrento as somewhat 'less' speculative than before and reasonable a bet as might exist now in multi-product-solution biotechs (none are secure in conventional terms), in price-reward sorts of terms. There's enough promise (provided no outright FDA denial or recent highs an enduring ceiling. As noted in one comment yesterday, stocks like this aren't suitable for investors, unless they are used to playing with fairly wild stocks that fluctuate a lot.

In-sum: 

There is discussion about how 'good' rising house prices are for most consumers, and frankly that's a bit of a 'fantasy world' narrative.

Purchasing power for probably 90% of the population is diminished when big portions of income have to support basic housing (mortgage, taxes, insurance or HOA if applicable), and that's true for renters too by extension of the same trend of higher costs. Besides supply/demand and materials costs, there's not the kind of argument that 'inflation is good', other than Government wants the buying power of the Dollar reduced so as to repay debt more cheaply.