The surf was up on Expiration Friday, with lots of varied individual stocks it was evident, diverging from the earlier DJIA and S&P upside; while breadth in fact was a better reflection of the swells between the waves of this session.

Friday the United Airlines (UAL) CEO said air travel might not return until 2024; well that's likely what he got from the Singapore gathering I referred to a couple of days ago; especially where airlines rely on business travel which won't be the same anytime soon, even with solutions for Covid and a vaccine; now that the managements of companies (typically older and used to 'gathering') realize all the cost savings except where you're really doing a big deal or product launch that you want a captive audience of sorts to be aware of.

(S&P double-top or not; the broad market is a bit shakier for the moment.)

Executive summary:

• S&P continues shuffling at high levels, with sensitivity to Stimulus news;
• Long-term risks by all these debt-incurring stem-the-tide moves persist; but the view also persists that to do otherwise creates a worse prospect; a longer period of economic suppression, and even overt desperation a can reflect itself in uncontrolled chaos beyond anything previously seen;
• Many stocks faded late Friday; in many cases from October's Expiration;
• Regardless of a soft start Monday we may rebound especially with firm Oil; none of that relates particularly to political rancor aside Stimulus; it may well remain a slightly defensive range-bound market just for now;Sorrento revealed a detailed 8-K acquisiton after-the-close Friday; it looks like a fair deal that aside the lead candidate pending FDA approval to treat ARDs, has ties to hundreds of hospitals in China (huge market) and will be acretive over time to Sorrento; but is primarily a long-term prospect beyond Covid.

Speaking of captives, Barbarians are still circling; and none of the polls or other 'deltas' related to Election probabilities will tell you about 2021. Recall that in 2016, I was one of the few who said 'if Trump wins it's to the Moon'; at the same time there are different variables (likely social disruption) sort of still hanging-over this market like the Sword of Damocles. 

So we can't really 'standardize any technical data or market deltas related to a political outcome' reliably here; but we can say that the catastrophe crowd has it wrong about a probable broad-based or 'era-ending' crash they keep talking about. That's because the majority of stocks are nowhere near extreme highs and the leadership stocks are somewhat managed although unattractive for the most part, from a valuation viewpoint. It's one reason we've moved a year ago to viewing this more as 'a market of stocks, than just a stock market'.

So yes, the focus for now of course remains on Covid; not politicians trying to morph it into something it's not, or conversely desiring to shut down everything as if (beyond maybe two weeks such as some in the UK now propose) to get a grip on this in cities or states where it's truly a nightmare (Wisconsin is one).

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As to the S&P, indeed, discretion remains the better part of valor; and risk this month as well as in the wake of the Election (or ensuing chaos) remains.