Fundamental tailwinds are generally underestimated by analysts; though doubtless S&P is increasingly extended on a short-term basis. Normalization of Asian markets, less pressure on Taiwan; relatively softer Oil; all are helping; but maybe the insane fervor of bears and high short interest, has factored too.

The supply of Treasuries is down (lower issuance) so that also helps focus interest in equities. How much financing the Government does, matters. 

Late last week I mentioned China and the U.S. coming back and migrating through some core challenges (geopolitical and health); and that combines with stocks having sailed the rough seas, to what now is a 'broadening' market in terms of breadth participation, helps hold the Indexes together and may argue well for a resumption of upward activity 'after' more turbulence in the weeks ahead.

In the meantime I've been asked to weigh-in on the Fibonacci 50% issue; as it became the latest hook for the bears. Of course you get through it; spook lots of shorts in other than Meme stocks; and then you can think of a setback. It's interesting that it very much dovetails with my comments about the 200 DMA.

Certainly one key will be semiconductor demand.So you have to believe it stays firm, rather than evaporates as one Chinese analyst suggested (based on lower cellphone and consumer electronics demand in China). That view was possibly 'clouded' by lack of availability and also China's major cities got people squirreled into essentially quarantine; even if they weren't sick at all.

So markets should pull back; but there is so much negative unity that it may minimize the extent of decline; but not the choppy volatility that I simply call' turbulence'.And yes I do expect more turbulence in the weeks just ahead.

Gravity hold things to Earth. Right now the Fat Lady is offstage warming-up it seems; but ironically both sold-out (and cash-rich) Bulls as well as Bears are salivating at the idea of the market tanking. I don't know about 'tanking' but I'm thinking we get a little higher and then have a rest. As I outlined in charts.

For the moment we could see S&P start up and then pull back before another intraweek rally; and ideally that will occur and be exasperating for the skeptics of course. I concur that the market is rubbing it in the Fed's face; but politics at this point might also restrain the Fed (after all they can take credit but Oil's dip I called for has more to do with the favorable number interpretation that any of the rate hikes; and if Oil rebounds now it will initially help then hurt Indexes). 

The coming week will be fairly interesting; and has some shot of confirming all the strength (weeks after our indicated June low, which was tough at the time) and then setting-things up for a setback. However barring 'black swan' arrival, it is conceivable we hold a higher low on any setback; not even a full retest. 

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