Reader Bruce Hall wishes for any discussion of the impact of trade policies to include displays of the manufacturing sector’s progress, over the maximally long period. Here, without further ado, is what I could gather quickly.

Figure 1: Manufacturing employment (blue), and manufacturing production (tan), both seasonally adjusted, in logs, 1972M01=0. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations.

and for a shorter period:

Figure 2: Value added in bn. Ch.2005$ (blue), in bn.Ch.2012$ (tan), in bn. Ch.2017$ (lack), all SAAR. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations.

While total manufacturing employment is just above pre-trade war levels, and (gross) manufacturing production is just about even, real value added is far above. And value added is far above what it was when China joined the WTO.

Addendum: When did big employment reductions occur:

Figure 3: Manufacturing employment, 000’s, s.a. (blue). Source: BLS via FRED.

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