In response to my summary for 2022 and argument that it was unlikely that 2022H1 would be called a recession, Mr. Steven Kopits writes:

So, for H1:

3. Civilian employment was flat to down

Well, it pays to look at actual data before pontificating.

Figure 1: Civilian employment over age 16, FRED series CE16OV (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted to nonfarm payroll concept (red), nonfarm payroll employment, FRED series PAYEMS (tan), nonfarm payroll employment series adjusted to reflect preliminary benchmark revision by author (green), Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages total covered employment, adjusted by Census X-13 by author (orange), all expressed relative to 2021M12 values, all seasonally adjusted. Lilac shading denotes hypothesized (by Mr. Steven Kopits) 2022H1 peak-to-trough recession.  Source: CE16OV, PAYEMS from BLS via FRED, preliminary benchmarked series constructed by author using data from BLS, civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept from BLS, QCEW from BLS. 

Since Mr. Kopits and I have been debating this topic over the last five months, I thought that he would at least get this right. However, just for the record, let me reiterate, as of June (the end of H1), civilian employment as recorded by the household survey was 1.4% higher than it was in December 2021. Civilian employment adjusted to the nonfarm payroll concept was 2.0% higher than it was in December 2021.

As for his other points:

1. GDP was down
2. Inflation was up
3. Civilian employment was flat to down
4. Jobs were up
5. Productivity was down.

I will note:

1. GDP was down, GDP+ and GDP++ were up. GDO was 0.3% lower than 2021Q4 levels.
2.  Inflation was up (but is not used in the NBER BCDC’s determination, since it’s not a measure of “economic activity”).
3.  
4. Jobs were indeed up — see Figure 1 above.
5.  Productivity was indeed down (as measured by output per hour). However, this too is not used in the NBER BCDC determination.

More By This Author:

Weekly Macro Indicators, Through December 24
Unemployment Insurance Claims, Layoffs, Recession
“Foreign Direct Investment Under Uncertainty” Up To 2019