Gold Great? Or Sedate?


Let's start with Gold Great

'Twas just 59 trading days ago on 08 March that Gold (GLD) traded down to the year's low of 1673. But since then, yesterday's (Friday's) settle at 1904 marks a 231-point gain. Thus to again revisit our proportional math class from back in 7th grade:

"59 trading days is to 231 points as 150 trading days [remaining in this year] is to X points"

Therefore: 231 x 150 ÷ 59 = 587 points.

Which added to Gold's present level of 1904 would put Gold at 2491 come New Year's Eve. Which exceeds our forecast high for this year of 2401 by 90 points. That's pretty Gold Great, eh? 

Now in turning to Gold's weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, one may rightly say, "Well, all that straight line math makes for a good story, but..." given markets move in anything but a straight line. Further, the pure technician can readily point to all the previous price to-and-fro in our chart below to keep a lid on the show: 

However, the fundamental realist need only cite the Dollar's rampant debasement (its $20.5 trillion supply by "M2" +14.0% year-over-year), President Biden's "plan" to increase spending by another $6 trillion (that's 29.3% of the present money supply), stagflation on the come, and of course our opening Gold Scoreboard's present valuation of 3844. All of which is inarguably supported by the 3Ds of Debasement, Debt and Derivatives. Gold Great indeed.

As for Gold Sedate let's pause a moment for price perspective by looking at our standings for the BEGOS Markets thus far for 2021 with five full trading months in the books; (as you know, Monday being a Stateside holiday, its abbreviated trading session is to be accounted as part of 01 June). And as we see in the table, Gold year-to-date is all but "unch" in having settled last year at 1902, just two points below today's level of 1904. Not (yet) any stagflation bid there. Gold Sedate indeed. But with Oil (OIL) and Copper (JJC) dominating this year's performances, their rise with the economy's pending demise shall all but you surprise, (given you read The Gold Update):

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