With Q4 3rd release, we have an estimate of GDO, in addition to GDP.

Figure 1: top panel, GDP (blue), GDO (green), GDP+ (tan), all in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. Note GDP+ is based on level of GDP in 2019Q4, GDPNow as of 3/29 (sky blue square). bottom panel; final sales (blue, left scale), final sales to private domestic purchasers (tan, scale), all in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. Source: BEA 2023Q4 3rd release, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, and author’s calculations.

GDP growth is 3.4% (SAAR), GDO is 4.1%, and final sales to private domestic purchasers — often taken to be the best predictor of aggregate demand — is 3.3%. GDPNow for 2024Q1 is 2.3%, while the nowcast of the NY Fed is 1.9% (both as of 3/29).

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