While GDP is revised down, GDO matches my guess from last month.

Figure 1: GDP advance (light blue), GDPNow as of 8/24 (light blue square), GDP 2nd release (dark blue), GDO guess of 7/29 (pink), GDO (dark red), final sales advance (light green), final sales (dark green), all in bn.Ch.2012$ SAAR. GDO guess assumes net operating surplus drops $100 bn SAAR in Q2. Source: BEA 2023Q2 advance, and 2nd release, Atlanta Fed, and author’s calculations.

GDO grew 1.3% – slower than the downwardly revised 2.1% of GDP (SAAR). Notice that final sales were not substantially revised, with the growth rate at 2.2%.

GDPNow is registering a 5.9% growth rate (SAAR) as of 8/24. Note that other tracking estimates differ. Goldman Sachs is at 2.6% (8/28), Wells Fargo at 2% (8/25).

More By This Author: