Forecast Traders Expect A Miss In September Payrolls, Price In Continued Shutdown Risk

By Jose Torres of Traders'Insight

Thursday, October 2, 2025 2:05 PM EDT

The government shutdown will prevent the release of tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls report, but our prediction market points to a modest miss when the figure is eventually released. Indeed, the median estimate for September jobs is 50k, but the associated contract carries pricing that points to a 54% chance that the print will fail to exceed 50k. Few market participants are projecting a negative print, however, as there’s an 86% probability of a result above 0. A big beat also has slim assigned odds, as a statistic exceeding the 100k threshold is at 11%.

Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contract regarding September payroll.

But In-line On Unemployment

Our prediction market participants only assign a 34% chance that September unemployment will exceed the consensus expectation of 4.3%, which would mark an unchanged month-over-month reading. A drop to 4.2% or lower is at just 21%, while a fall to 4.1% or beneath is at a mere 6%.

Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contract regarding September unemployment rate

Political Polarization to Persist?

The Nov. 1 government shutdown “Yes” contract carries a 37% probability, as participants price in the potential for continued disagreements in Washington.

Source for Images: ForecastEx

More By This Author:

Tomorrow’s Forecast Trades For EU Unemployment, Fed’s Weekly Index
Should We Care About Another Shutdown?
What Comes Next?

Disclosure: ForecastEx

Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx ...

Disclosure: ForecastEx

Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx forecast contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.

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