Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Jan 13, 2026.

10-year note: Currently net short 870.5k, down 45k.

Non-commercials reduced net shorts in 10-year note futures by 4.9 percent this week, but they maintain a heavy bearish exposure. Yields have an inverse relationship with the notes, hence these traders benefit if the underlying loses value and rates head higher.

As things stand, the 10-year treasury yield could be primed for higher prints – duration and magnitude notwithstanding. This week, the 10-year added six basis points to 4.23 percent. There is stiff horizontal resistance at 4.20s going back at least three years. Going into this week, the 10-year had been denied at this hurdle for five consecutive weeks; this week, it closed right at that level.

The 10-year has trended higher since last October when it bottomed at 3.95 percent. For five weeks through last week, yields stopped right at 4.2 percent, which was taken care of this week. Concurrently, a falling trendline from last January has been broken to the upside.

30-year bond: Currently net long 13.8k, up 20.7k.

Major US economic releases for next week are as follows. Markets are closed Monday for observance of Martin Luther King, Jr Day.

GDP (3Q25, 1^st revision) and corporate profits (3Q25, revised) will be out Thursday.

The first print showed real GDP in the September quarter grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.3 percent, which follows expansion of 3.8 percent in 2Q and contraction of 0.6 percent in 1Q.

Preliminarily, corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments jumped 9.1 percent from a year ago to $4.1 trillion – a record.

Friday brings personal income/outlays (October/November) and University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index (January, final).

In the 12 months to September, headline and core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) rose 2.8 percent each, with the former at a 17-month high and the latter at a three-month low.

Preliminarily this month, consumer sentiment increased 1.1 points month-over-month to 54 – a four-month high.

WTI crude oil: Currently net long 129.4k, up 2.7k.

After bottoming on 16 December at $54.98, West Texas Intermediate crude has rallied for four weeks, including this week’s 0.3-percent rise to $59.30/barrel, although much of this week’s gains were left on the table. Intraday Wednesday, the crude tagged $62.36 but was strongly rejected at the 200-day, with the session closing at $62.02; WTI has been under the average since 1 August. It remains above the 50-day at $58.56, which will probably get tested in the sessions ahead. There is solid support at $56.

In the meantime, US crude production in the week to January 9^th decreased 58,000 barrels per day week-over-week to 13.753 million b/d; output registered a record 13.862 mb/d in the week to November 7^th last year. Crude imports rose 753,000 b/d to 7.1 mb/d. As did stocks of crude and gasoline, which respectively rose 3.4 million barrels and nine million barrels to 422.4 million barrels and 251 million barrels. Distillate inventory, however, dropped 29,000 barrels to 129.2 million barrels. Refinery utilization strengthened six-tenths of a percentage point to 95.3 percent.

E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 122.1k, up 16k.

Monday opened and closed strong, with a fresh intraday high of 6986, but the positive momentum proved fleeting. Wednesday’s drop to 6886 was bought, yet equity bulls were unable to soak up all the selling pressure. The week finished down 0.4 percent to 6940 with a weekly doji.

For bulls’ consolation, the S&P 500 remains above 6920s, which it broke out of in the previous week. Odds favor a breach of this support ahead.

With nine trading sessions to go, bulls need to put up solid performance this month, which until now is up 1.4 percent. This comes in the wake of potentially bearish candles of November and December, with the former forming a monthly hanging man and the latter a spinning top. After the large cap index bottomed last April, it rallied for seven consecutive months before giving out signs of fatigue.

Euro: Currently net long 132.7k, down 30.2k.

On 24 December, the euro ticked $1.1808 and headed lower. This week, it ended down 0.3 percent to $1.1599. This was the third weekly drop in a row. The 50-day ($1.166) has been compromised, while the 200-day ($1.159) was tested on Friday but was not breached.

The daily has been pushed into oversold territory, so a rally is possible. That said, it is unlikely to amount to much if the weekly prevails and continues to unwind its overbought condition.

Earlier on 5 November, the currency had troughed at $1.1469. The Christmas Eve high represented a lower high versus the $1.1919 posted on 17 September.

Gold: Currently net long 251.2k, up 23.6k.

Gold bugs are not letting up. They rallied the metal another 1.9 percent this week to $4,595/ounce, with Wednesday touching $4,643 intraday. If January, up 6.3 percent thus far, ends positive, this would represent a sixth up month in a row; in fact, in the last 27 months, there have only been five down months. In October 2023, gold bottomed at $1,810.

After this kind of a parabolic run, most technical indicators obviously remain in gross overbought territory, but momentum remains intact. The metal is likely to come under pressure in the near term and likely finds support at $4,370s.

Nasdaq (mini): Currently net long 29.1k, down 3.4k.

American tech heavyweights do not report their December quarter until the week after. Ahead of this, the Nasdaq 100 continues to act lethargic. This week, it gave back 0.9 percent to 25529, for a weekly spinning top, and remains trapped in a two-and-a-half-month symmetrical triangle, which goes back to 29 October when the tech-heavy index reached a fresh high of 26182.

Amidst this, the daily Bollinger bands are in a process of tightening; when this happens, a sharp move – in either direction – follows.

The Nasdaq 100 rallied for seven straight months after bottoming last April at 16542. Then came November and December, which were both down months, albeit nominally, but the more important thing is the candles the months produced – a hanging man and a doji, in that order. Signs of fatigue are showing up.

Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net long 11.4k, up 13.5k.

Up two percent, the Russell 2000 had another strong week, closing at 2678, with an intraday high of 2692 on Friday. This follows last week’s clean breakout at 2540s; in the preceding week, breakout retest at 2540s was successful.

Month-to-date, the index has racked up gains of 7.9 percent. if small-cap bulls can hold these gains, this would have decisively nullified the potentially bearish candles of November and December, which respectively produced a hanging man and a shooting star.

The performance in the cash market has begun to excite the futures traders, as non-commercials went net long this week; this was the second time they have done so in five weeks.

US Dollar Index: Currently net short 3.7k, down 101.

A year ago, after a three-plus-month rally, the US dollar index reversed hard at 110.18, subsequently reaching 96.38 in June and successfully testing that low in September when it reversed higher tagging 96.22.

On 21 November, the index tagged 100.39 and was repelled. There is stiff resistance just north of 100, and it goes back more than a decade. Dollar bulls are getting closer to testing this hurdle. This week, the US dollar index added 0.25 percent to 99.38 but did rally as high as 99.49 on Thursday and 99.48 on Friday.

Having rallied in 16 of the last 18 sessions, the daily remains stretched, and it is unlikely the 100-plus resistance even gets tested, let alone fall, this time around. In the event of downward pressure, the 50- and 200-day respectively lie at 98.95 and 98.72.

VIX: Currently net short 92.4k, up 4.1k.

On Christmas Eve, VIX hit 13.38 intraday and reversed higher; in that session, the S&P 500 reached an intraday high of 6937, which is flattish to where it closed out this week. On Wednesday, the volatility index tagged an intraday high of 18.10, with the week closing at 15.86. In other words, volatility went up a lot post-Christmas even though the S&P 500 went nowhere. This has pushed VIX into overbought territory on the daily. VIX could come under pressure in the sessions ahead. If the typical inverse relationship between the two holds, this could mean a higher S&P 500, with a reminder that the relationship has failed to hold post-Christmas.

In the meantime, a rising trendline from July 2024 when VIX troughed at 10.62 was breached briefly but has now been reclaimed.

Thanks for reading!

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