The FY 24 Budget was released today. Because the forecast was locked down in late November, and the macro outlook has changed so much, the administration felt compelled to add an “Update on the Administration’s Economic Assumptions”. Here’s the forecast (based on Table S-9 in the Budget).

Figure 1: GDP as reported (black), Administration forecast (sky blue squares), CBO projection (brown), Survey of Professional Forecasters median (red), GDPNow (3/8) (light green triangle). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA 2022Q4 2nd release, FY 2024 Budget, Table S-9, CBO, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.

The Troika (OMB-CEA-Treasury) forecast is pretty similar to the CBO projection finalized in January, and slightly less optimistic than the February Survey of Professional Forecasters median (for end-2023).

Table S-9 is reproduced below:

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