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SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold 4/9/25 at 5456.90= gain 9.52%; Long SPX 4/8/25 at 4982.77.

Our gain 1/1/24 to 12/31/24 = 29.28%; SPX gain 23.67%

Our Gain 1/1/23 to 12/31/23 SPX= 28.12%; SPX gain 23.38%

Monitoring purposes GOLD: Sold long GDX 4/11/25 at 49.66 = gain 21.33%.

We ended up 29.28% for 2024; SPX up 23.67% for the year. SPY may be attempting to test last Wednesday high near the 550 level. The 10, 21 and 63 day TRIN are not near bullish levels suggesting the test may produce resistance and especially if the test comes on lighter volume. At some point the market may retrace back to last Monday’s low near SPY 480 range. Monday’s low had high volume and most high volume lows are tested. Staying neutral for now. 

The top window is the 10 day TRIN which stands at .96 and not bullish; needs to be near 1.20 or higher for bull case. The 10 day TRIN of 1.20 show panic and panic forms near lows. For an intermediate term low to form the 21 day TRIN would need to reach 1.20 and higher; current reading is .95 and not near bullish levels. What that means for the market is for more tests of the recent lows or worst to get the TRIN closes above 1.20 for an extended time. Market could get messy over the next several weeks if not months.

We updated the chart above. We sold our long GDX on Friday’s close for a 21.33% gain. Last Thursday’s commentary still stands, “The pattern forming on GDX appear to be “Three Drive to Top”. This pattern has three higher highs where the second top retraces at least 61.8% of the previous up leg and also has an increase in volume (both condition are met on the current GDX pattern). After the second top pull back is complete the market rallies to a third high where the pattern completes. Once the third high is completed the market retraces back to where the pattern began, which is near the 39.00 level on GDX. Its is said that “Three Drives to Top” pattern is not a long term topping pattern but rather a “time out” in an uptrend; which would imply the 39.00 area on GDX could be a good buy.”

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