E Market Briefing For Thursday, September 10

Institutional biases - contributed to the strength of a projected Wednesday rebound after the 3 day decline. Not to focus solely on our Fed continuing to have the back of this market, there's more. The institutions dominated the 'narrow universe' of gainers for some time and they generally use similar (if not almost identical) algorithms.  

Also they were hurt in the shakeout and presumably loathe to let things melt away. A new member asked why I'm not more assertive about intraday S&P moves. As you'll recall I have a view that there are only a few times a year that dramatic moves will occur in a normal market. And although this is not a normal market, there are forces at-work attempting to limit contractions, broaden participation, and not surrender a key lead of technology altogether. It might be partially political, but it's out there. This tragedy (the fires) matters, and ultimately supports the rebuilding boom for years.

Speaking of politics, it gets heavier now. But in this case The White House 'spin' on a President 'not wanting to cause panic', is only partially acceptable, as begs questions as to why lots of other things transpired (including 'rebelling' against masks or going for a National Emergency sooner) if the President knew how bad COVID-19 was early on. I note this not to express my (slightly conflicted) 'centrist' bias, but suspecting this will be an issue, especially with regard to not issuing early-warning preparation calls.  

As or if this comes-out more vividly, it may well show in the polls. Bob Woodward will be interviewed on CBS '60 Minutes' this Sunday (their highest ratings?). I've often been critical of journalists, but whether it was Jeff Goldberg in The Atlantic, or Bob Woodward, I respect their work. As someone recalling attacks on journalists during Nixon-era Watergate and Pentagon Papers scandals or denials, I get this. Today's journalists generally are agenda-driven even with scripted interviews. I get that too. So every now or then worthy journalists rise above shrill politics, meriting attention. 

 Executive summary:

  • Rebound occurred without an initial dip, encouraging me to call for traction to be retained generally through the session, the late-day fade was fairly typical.
  • Our S&P pattern idea included suggesting we'd get a rebound and 'revisit' the idea of a new leg lower after we see Thursday, nothing carved in stone here.
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Atif Ozcelik 1 month ago Member's comment

Comments on the major vaccine producers are very useful; thank for the information on SRNE, AZN.