Political Calculations initial estimate of median household income in September 2025 is $85,157. This estimate represents a $691 (+0.8%) increase over our initial estimate of $84,466 for the U.S.' median household income in August 2025.

Unfortunately, Motio Research's estimate of the nation's median household income in September 2025 is not available this month because it is a casualty of the Democrat senators' ongoing refusal to vote to end the federal government shutdown. Motio Research's estimates are based on survey data collected each month as part of the U.S. Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey, which has been suspended because of the shutdown.

We're able to get around that limitation because our alternate methodology for estimating median household income is derived from other data. We utilize aggregate wage and salary earnings data along with population data, both of which lend themselves to analysis using simple linear regression.

For both, we determined trends established in the data of the preceding 12 months, from August 2024 through August 2025, that we can project into the future. For September 2025, we project the U.S. resident population is 342,678,000 and the total amount of received wage and salary compensation is $13.1472 trillion. We used these estimates with the alternate methodology we've developed to produce our initial September 2025 estimate of U.S. median household income.

The latest update to Political Calculations' chart tracking Median Household Income in the 21st Century shows the nominal (red) and inflation-adjusted (blue) trends for median household income in the United States from January 2000 through September 2025. The inflation-adjusted figures are presented in terms of constant September 2025 U.S. dollars and are not seasonally adjusted.
 

Analyst's Notes

Since the BEA substantially revised its aggregate earned income data last month, we anticipate any revisions in the historic data from which we produced our projections will be very small. We won't know how that data may have changed until the BEA and Census Bureau resume operations.

It will be interesting to see how well our estimate based on projected aggregate earnings and population data compares with Motio Research's survey-based data. We're very much looking forward to that information as it becomes available. We're also very interested to see if the surge in median household income that Motio Research has captured in recent months is a sustained change in trend or if it is a short term outlier.

References

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Population. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last updated: 26 September 2025.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Compensation of Employees, Received: Wage and Salary Disbursements. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last updated: 26 September 2025.

U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers - (CPI-U), U.S. City Average, All Items, 1982-84=100. Not seasonally adjusted. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. 24 October 2025.

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