Metals Speculators Push Their Platinum Bullish Bets To 91-Week High
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Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday, Jan. 3, and it shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes Led by Platinum & Gold
The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week, as just two out of the five precious metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the metals was platinum (5,837 contracts), with gold (4,786 contracts) also experiencing a positive week. The ones with declines in speculator bets for the week were copper (-5,399 contracts), palladium (-336 contracts), and silver (-93 contracts), as they all registered lower bets on the week.
Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the continued gains in bets for the platinum positions. The large speculator position in platinum futures rose this week for a second straight week and for the fifth time over the past six weeks. Over the past fourteen weeks, platinum bets have been higher in twelve of those weeks. The speculator position (sitting at +30,503 contracts) has now risen to the most bullish level since April 6 of 2021, a span of 91 weeks.
Platinum prices have been moving higher since hitting a multi-year low in early September as well. Since falling to a low just beneath $800 on Sept. 1, platinum futures have been in a strong uptrend, and closed this week above the $1100 price level for an almost 40% rise (since Sept. 1) and the highest weekly close since March 2022.
Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
|
Jan-03-2023
|
OI
|
OI-Index
|
Spec-Net
|
Spec-Index
|
Com-Net
|
COM-Index
|
Smalls-Net
|
Smalls-Index
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 449,393 | 7 | 141,666 | 30 | -159,974 | 70 | 18,308 | 26 |
| Copper | 164,594 | 13 | -4,675 | 33 | -163 | 67 | 4,838 | 53 |
| Silver | 131,990 | 9 | 30,934 | 48 | -44,211 | 53 | 13,277 | 37 |
| Platinum | 69,687 | 38 | 30,503 | 50 | -33,157 | 54 | 2,654 | 4 |
| Palladium | 8,456 | 12 | -2,542 | 10 | 2,422 | 87 | 120 | 49 |
Strength Scores Led by Platinum & Silver
COT strength scores (a normalized measure of speculator positions over a three-year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme-bullish and below 20 is extreme-bearish) showed that the platinum (50%) led the metals markets this week. Silver (48%) came in as the next highest in terms of the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, palladium (10%) came in at the lowest strength level, and it appears to be in extreme-bearish territory (below 20%). Just above palladium was gold (30%).
Strength statistics:
- Gold (29.7%) vs. gold the previous week (28.1%).
- Silver (48.2%) vs. silver the previous week (48.3%).
- Copper (32.6%) vs. copper the previous week (36.9%).
- Platinum (50.1%) vs. platinum the previous week (42.3%).
- Palladium (9.8%) vs. palladium the previous week (12.0%).
Silver & Platinum Top the Six-Week Strength Trends
COT strength score trends (also called the move index, which calculates the six-week changes in strength scores) showed that silver (16%) positively led the trends for metals for the past six weeks. Platinum (11%) closely followed behind silver as another positive mover. Palladium (-9%) led the downside trend scores, with copper (-6%) following behind with rather low trend scores.
Move statistics:
- Gold (8.5%) vs. gold the previous week (3.5%).
- Silver (15.6%) vs. silver the previous week (14.8%).
- Copper (-6.2%) vs. copper the previous week (-7.2%).
- Platinum (10.8%) vs. platinum the previous week (2.9%).
- Palladium (-9.3%) vs. palladium the previous week (-7.4%).
Individual Markets - Gold Comex Futures
The gold Comex futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 141,666 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,786 contracts from the previous week, which had a total of 136,880 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.7%. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8%, and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8%.
| Gold Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| –% of Open Interest Longs: | 51.4 | 25.3 | 9.4 |
| –% of Open Interest Shorts: | 19.8 | 60.9 | 5.3 |
| – Net Position: | 141,666 | -159,974 | 18,308 |
| – Gross Longs: | 230,801 | 113,520 | 42,337 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 89,135 | 273,494 | 24,029 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.6 to 1 | 0.4 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 29.7 | 69.8 | 25.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 8.5 | -9.2 | 11.0 |
Silver Comex Futures
The silver Comex futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 30,934 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -93 contracts from the previous week, which had a total of 31,027 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.2%. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5%, and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5%.
| Silver Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| –% of Open Interest Longs: | 43.8 | 33.5 | 17.9 |
| –% of Open Interest Shorts: | 20.4 | 67.0 | 7.8 |
| – Net Position: | 30,934 | -44,211 | 13,277 |
| – Gross Longs: | 57,801 | 44,229 | 23,576 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 26,867 | 88,440 | 10,299 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.2 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 2.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 48.2 | 53.5 | 36.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 15.6 | -15.7 | 12.2 |
Copper Grade #1 Futures
The copper Grade #1 futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,675 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,399 contracts from the previous week, which had a total of 724 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6%. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9%, and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3%.
| Copper Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| –% of Open Interest Longs: | 34.7 | 41.9 | 10.4 |
| –% of Open Interest Shorts: | 37.6 | 42.0 | 7.4 |
| – Net Position: | -4,675 | -163 | 4,838 |
| – Gross Longs: | 57,191 | 68,905 | 17,079 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 61,866 | 69,068 | 12,241 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 32.6 | 66.9 | 53.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -6.2 | 4.6 | 10.6 |
Platinum Futures
The platinum futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 30,503 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,837 contracts from the previous week, which had a total of 24,666 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1%. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.2%, and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.9%.
| Platinum Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| –% of Open Interest Longs: | 59.6 | 26.9 | 9.9 |
| –% of Open Interest Shorts: | 15.9 | 74.5 | 6.1 |
| – Net Position: | 30,503 | -33,157 | 2,654 |
| – Gross Longs: | 41,555 | 18,734 | 6,879 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 11,052 | 51,891 | 4,225 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.8 to 1 | 0.4 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 50.1 | 54.2 | 3.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 10.8 | -7.1 | -31.8 |
Palladium Futures
The palladium futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,542 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -336 contracts from the previous week, which had a total of -2,206 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8%. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8%, and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9%.
| Palladium Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| –% of Open Interest Longs: | 25.1 | 55.6 | 15.0 |
| –% of Open Interest Shorts: | 55.1 | 26.9 | 13.6 |
| – Net Position: | -2,542 | 2,422 | 120 |
| – Gross Longs: | 2,120 | 4,700 | 1,270 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 4,662 | 2,278 | 1,150 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 2.1 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 9.8 | 86.8 | 48.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -9.3 | 7.8 | 11.9 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is three days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits), and non-reportable traders (usually small traders/speculators), as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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