Currency Speculators Cut Japanese Yen Bearish Bets For 6th Time In 7 Weeks

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 13th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

 

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen

(Click on image to enlarge)

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (12,808 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (2,726 contracts), British Pound (2,454 contracts), Brazilian Real (1,261 contracts), US Dollar Index (892 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (419 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-5,158 contracts), Mexican Peso (-3,588 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (-1,008 contracts), EuroFX (-168 contracts) and Bitcoin (-107 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currencies data this week is the improvement being seen in the Japanese yen speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for the Japanese yen have risen for two straight weeks and in six out of the past seven weeks. This improvement for the yen has taken the net position from a total of -102,618 contracts on October 25th to just a total of -53,188 contracts this week for a total reduction in the bearish position by +49,430 contracts. The yen speculator position is now at the least bearish level in the past fifteen weeks.

The yen exchange rate versus the dollar has been on the mend as well after falling to over a 30-year low in October at the 151.94 exchange rate. The yen has rallied by approximately 10 percent since the recent low and has been helped out by a decreasing interest rate differential between the US bonds and the Japanese bonds (see chart below). The yen could see further improvement if the USDJPY falls below the approaching the 200-day moving average.

(Click on image to enlarge)

japanese yen vs us dollar interest rate differential


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Dec-13-2022
OI
OI-Index
Spec-Net
Spec-Index
Com-Net
COM-Index
Smalls-Net
Smalls-Index
EUR 772,800 100 124,715 73 -157,377 31 32,662 31
MXN 290,116 91 44,364 46 -49,811 52 5,447 66
GBP 240,264 61 -25,739 47 31,288 55 -5,549 47
JPY 226,964 66 -53,188 36 59,029 64 -5,841 42
AUD 172,269 62 -37,837 50 42,845 51 -5,008 40
CAD 169,433 43 -27,248 9 24,924 89 2,324 35
NZD 55,294 64 -7,506 34 6,096 61 1,410 68
CHF 49,340 64 -11,811 23 15,972 71 -4,161 43
USD Index 48,069 63 25,778 68 -28,482 31 2,704 46
BRL 34,190 19 3,459 50 -5,560 49 2,101 86
RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24
Bitcoin 13,989 71 -40 76 -409 0 449 23

 


Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & EuroFX

(Click on image to enlarge)

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Bitcoin (76 percent) and the EuroFX (73 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The US Dollar Index (68 percent), Australian Dollar (50 percent) and the Brazilian Real (50 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (9 percent) is at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (23 percent), New Zealand Dollar (34 percent) and the Japanese Yen (36 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (67.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (66.4 percent)
EuroFX (73.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (73.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (46.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (44.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (36.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (28.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (23.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (22.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (9.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (49.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (47.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (34.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (36.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (46.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (47.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (49.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (48.3 percent)
Bitcoin (76.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (78.1 percent)

 

British Pound & Japanese Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

(Click on image to enlarge)

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (16 percent) and the Japanese Yen (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (12 percent), the Swiss Franc (8 percent) and the Bitcoin (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-11 percent), New Zealand Dollar (-10 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-6.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-8.7 percent)
EuroFX (5.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (15.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (16.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (16.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (15.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (22.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (7.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-2.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-11.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-4.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (11.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (10.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-9.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (17.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (0.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (15.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (-27.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-28.9 percent)
Bitcoin (7.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (0.8 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

 

US Dollar Index Futures:

(Click on image to enlarge)

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT Chart

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 25,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 892 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,886 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.6 2.6 12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.0 61.8 6.4
– Net Position: 25,778 -28,482 2,704
– Gross Longs: 38,766 1,245 5,782
– Gross Shorts: 12,988 29,727 3,078
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.0 to 1 0.0 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.9 30.5 46.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.7 7.7 -9.2

 


Euro Currency Futures:

(Click on image to enlarge)

Euro Currency Futures COT Chart

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 124,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -168 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 124,883 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.6 53.6 12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.5 73.9 7.9
– Net Position: 124,715 -157,377 32,662
– Gross Longs: 236,415 414,090 94,033
– Gross Shorts: 111,700 571,467 61,371
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 73.3 31.4 31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.8 -8.1 15.4

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

(Click on image to enlarge)

British Pound Sterling Futures COT Chart

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -25,739 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,454 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.3 66.0 10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.0 53.0 12.9
– Net Position: -25,739 31,288 -5,549
– Gross Longs: 32,008 158,686 25,472
– Gross Shorts: 57,747 127,398 31,021
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.9 55.3 47.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.4 -23.2 29.4

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

(Click on image to enlarge)

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT Chart

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -53,188 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 12,808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,996 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.8 69.2 11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.3 43.2 14.3
– Net Position: -53,188 59,029 -5,841
– Gross Longs: 22,290 157,021 26,668
– Gross Shorts: 75,478 97,992 32,509
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.1 64.5 41.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.0 -17.9 25.0

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

(Click on image to enlarge)

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT Chart

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -11,811 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 419 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,230 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 4.2 68.9 21.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.2 36.6 29.9
– Net Position: -11,811 15,972 -4,161
– Gross Longs: 2,081 34,016 10,597
– Gross Shorts: 13,892 18,044 14,758
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 23.4 71.3 43.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.9 -19.4 29.7

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

(Click on image to enlarge)

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT Chart

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -27,248 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,158 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,090 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.7 51.6 18.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.8 36.9 17.6
– Net Position: -27,248 24,924 2,324
– Gross Longs: 31,720 87,471 32,089
– Gross Shorts: 58,968 62,547 29,765
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 9.3 89.5 34.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.5 4.7 7.9

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

(Click on image to enlarge)

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT Chart

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -37,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,726 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,563 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.8 61.2 10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 42.8 36.4 13.0
– Net Position: -37,837 42,845 -5,008
– Gross Longs: 35,825 105,480 17,339
– Gross Shorts: 73,662 62,635 22,347
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.8 50.8 40.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.8 -14.8 17.5

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

(Click on image to enlarge)

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT Chart

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -7,506 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,008 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,498 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.6 52.1 9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.2 41.0 7.0
– Net Position: -7,506 6,096 1,410
– Gross Longs: 19,700 28,793 5,297
– Gross Shorts: 27,206 22,697 3,887
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.1 60.9 67.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.8 -1.9 51.1

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

(Click on image to enlarge)

Mexican Peso Futures COT Chart

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 44,364 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,952 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 58.1 36.8 2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 42.8 53.9 0.9
– Net Position: 44,364 -49,811 5,447
– Gross Longs: 168,481 106,698 7,935
– Gross Shorts: 124,117 156,509 2,488
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.3 52.0 66.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.1 0.3 -4.3

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

(Click on image to enlarge)

Brazil Real Futures COT Chart

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 3,459 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,198 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 67.7 22.2 10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 57.6 38.4 4.0
– Net Position: 3,459 -5,560 2,101
– Gross Longs: 23,161 7,574 3,455
– Gross Shorts: 19,702 13,134 1,354
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.6 49.3 85.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -27.5 24.7 23.8

 


Bitcoin Futures:

(Click on image to enlarge)

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT Chart

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -40 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -107 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 76.2 2.9 9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 76.5 5.8 6.3
– Net Position: -40 -409 449
– Gross Longs: 10,666 403 1,329
– Gross Shorts: 10,706 812 880
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.2 44.6 23.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.2 -19.1 -0.4

 


Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.


More By This Author:

COT Bonds Speculators Drop 5-Year Treasury Bets To 215-Week Low
COT Soft Commodities Speculators Drop Corn Bullish Bets To 19-Week Low
COT Metals Speculators Boosted Their Silver Bullish Bets To 30-Week High

Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment.Due to the level of risk and market volatility, ...

more
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.