COT Week 31 Charts: Stock Market Speculator Bets Led Lower By Russell 2000, Minis
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes
COT stock market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts on the week.
Leading the gains for stock markets was the S&P500 Mini (5,750 contracts) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini with a gain of 2,764 contracts.
The stock markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Russell 2000 Mini (-14,743 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE Mini (-14,707 contracts) while the Nasdaq Mini (-7,097 contracts), the VIX (-6,273 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 USD (-245 contracts) also had lower bets on the week.
Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend
| S&P500-Mini | 2,310,665 | 8 | -231,885 | 13 | 293,137 | 100 | -61,252 | 14 |
| VIX | 322,604 | 33 | -98,838 | 60 | 105,971 | 41 | -7,133 | 57 |
| Nasdaq-Mini | 262,325 | 50 | 24,712 | 89 | -9,094 | 21 | -15,618 | 16 |
| DowJones-Mini | 72,619 | 31 | -18,421 | 14 | 22,960 | 90 | -4,539 | 14 |
| Nikkei 225 Yen | 59,868 | 43 | 8,348 | 60 | 24,116 | 86 | -32,464 | 8 |
| Nikkei 225 | 13,410 | 8 | -4,635 | 55 | 3,353 | 46 | 1,282 | 44 |
Strength Scores
Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (88.8 percent) has the highest strength score currently and remains in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent) although slightly lower from last week (92.8 percent). The VIX (59.8 percent) and the Nikkei USD (55.4 percent) come in as the next highest stocks market in strength scores. On the downside, the Russell 2000-Mini (0.0 percent), the EAFE-Mini (1.9 percent), the S&P500-Mini (13.2 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (13.8 percent) all currently have very weak speculator sentiment and are in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
VIX (59.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (62.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (13.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (12.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (13.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (10.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (88.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (92.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (0.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (8.3 percent)
Nikkei USD (55.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (56.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (1.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (18.6 percent)
Strength Trends
Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (9.4 percent) is the only stock market that has a positive six week trend for stocks at the moment. The EAFE-Mini (-35.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next lower trend scores were from the VIX (-24.5 percent) followed by the S&P500-Mini (-21.8 percent) and the Nikkei USD (-14.5 percent).
Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-24.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (-9.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-21.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-50.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (9.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (1.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-3.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (1.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-8.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-5.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (-14.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-9.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-35.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-24.8 percent)
Individual Markets:
VIX Volatility Futures:
The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -98,838 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,273 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -92,565 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.
| VIX Volatility Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 12.2 | 62.8 | 7.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 42.9 | 29.9 | 9.9 |
| – Net Position: | -98,838 | 105,971 | -7,133 |
| – Gross Longs: | 39,442 | 202,542 | 24,811 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 138,280 | 96,571 | 31,944 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 2.1 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 59.8 | 40.7 | 56.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -24.5 | 24.5 | -6.4 |
S&P500 Mini Futures:
The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -231,885 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,750 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -237,635 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.
| S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 10.3 | 77.3 | 9.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 20.3 | 64.6 | 12.2 |
| – Net Position: | -231,885 | 293,137 | -61,252 |
| – Gross Longs: | 237,594 | 1,786,757 | 220,741 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 469,479 | 1,493,620 | 281,993 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 13.2 | 100.0 | 13.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -21.8 | 22.5 | -6.6 |
Dow Jones Mini Futures:
The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -18,421 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,764 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,185 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent.
| Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 22.3 | 62.5 | 14.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 47.6 | 30.9 | 20.4 |
| – Net Position: | -18,421 | 22,960 | -4,539 |
| – Gross Longs: | 16,161 | 45,385 | 10,253 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 34,582 | 22,425 | 14,792 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 2.0 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 13.8 | 89.8 | 14.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 9.4 | -8.0 | -5.7 |
Nasdaq Mini Futures:
The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 24,712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,097 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,809 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent.
| Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 28.6 | 57.1 | 11.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 19.1 | 60.6 | 17.6 |
| – Net Position: | 24,712 | -9,094 | -15,618 |
| – Gross Longs: | 74,918 | 149,773 | 30,452 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 50,206 | 158,867 | 46,070 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.5 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 88.8 | 20.9 | 16.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -3.4 | 11.4 | -25.5 |
Russell 2000 Mini Futures:
The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -119,954 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,743 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,211 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent.
| Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 5.5 | 89.5 | 3.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 27.1 | 67.3 | 4.1 |
| – Net Position: | -119,954 | 123,483 | -3,529 |
| – Gross Longs: | 30,724 | 497,844 | 19,324 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 150,678 | 374,361 | 22,853 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.0 | 99.7 | 16.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -8.1 | 8.1 | -3.8 |
Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:
The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,635 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -245 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,390 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.
| Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 8.8 | 60.8 | 29.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 43.3 | 35.8 | 20.3 |
| – Net Position: | -4,635 | 3,353 | 1,282 |
| – Gross Longs: | 1,178 | 8,151 | 4,002 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 5,813 | 4,798 | 2,720 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 55.4 | 46.4 | 44.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -14.5 | 6.1 | 23.0 |
MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:
The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -31,514 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,707 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,807 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent.
| MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 4.9 | 91.4 | 2.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 12.7 | 84.9 | 1.6 |
| – Net Position: | -31,514 | 26,269 | 5,245 |
| – Gross Longs: | 20,008 | 370,698 | 11,622 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 51,522 | 344,429 | 6,377 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 1.9 | 100.0 | 64.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -35.9 | 33.2 | 29.5 |
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
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