The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on May 9th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 15.5 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 70,032 net contracts this week with a boost of 12,322 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 1.0 this week. The speculator position registered 62,029 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 4,078 contracts in speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level resides at a 99.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 5.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -2,101 net contracts this week with a change of -82 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 88.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 19.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 276,610 net contracts this week with a gain of 9,263 contracts in the speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 87.8 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 37.2 this week.

The speculator position was 97,837 net contracts this week with a decline of -6,949 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -910,642 net contracts this week with a edge lower by -412 contracts in the speculator bets.

S&P500 Mini

The S&P500 Mini speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The S&P500 speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -24.7 this week. The speculator position was -376,023 net contracts this week with a drop of -20,612 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 2-Year Note speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -26.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -749,885 net contracts this week with a sharp decline of -116,409 contracts in the speculator bets.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Lean Hogs speculator level is at a 1.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.6 this week. The speculator position was -26,075 net contracts this week with a decrease of -6,381 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

Finally, the Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Ultra 10-Year speculator level is at a 1.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.2 this week. The speculator position was -211,598 net contracts this week with a change of 6,690 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

More By This Author:

Speculator Extremes: Cocoa, 5-Year & 10-Year Bonds Lead Weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions
Euro Currency Speculators Boost Their Bullish Bets To 133-Week High
Speculators Boost Cocoa Bullish Bets To Highest Since March 2020