Euro Currency Speculators Boost Their Bullish Bets To 133-Week High

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 25th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by EuroFX & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as nine out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (5,039 contracts), British Pound (4,537 contracts), Brazilian Real (3,223 contracts), the Australian Dollar (2,894 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (2,442 contracts), the US Dollar Index (226 contracts), Swiss Franc (1,064 contracts), Bitcoin (196 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (652 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-11,875 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (-2,043 contracts) seeing lower bets on the week.

Euro Speculators boost their bullish bets to 133-week high

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the rising bullishness of the speculator’s positioning in the Euro Currency. Euro speculator bets turned from bearish to bullish on September 20th of 2022 and have steadily increased in positive sentiment. The Euro positions have now been above the +100,000 contract threshold for 26 straight weeks, the best streak since 2021.

This week, the large speculative Euro positions went higher for a third consecutive week and for the fifth time in the past six weeks. Euro weekly positions have now increased by a total of +29,444 contracts over these past six weeks. This positive sentiment has pushed the overall bullish standing to the highest level in 133-weeks, dating back to October 6th of 2020.

The Euro exchange rate against the US Dollar has also been on the rise and this week hit it’s highest level since March of 2022 above the 1.11 exchange level. Since late-February, the Euro has had higher weekly closes in seven out of the past nine weeks and is now higher by over 15 percent since it’s multi-decade low of 0.9592 in September.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Apr-25-2023
OI
OI-Index
Spec-Net
Spec-Index
Com-Net
COM-Index
Smalls-Net
Smalls-Index
EUR 772,882 83 169,400 84 -224,437 15 55,037 67
MXN 267,276 61 54,128 90 -58,607 11 4,479 84
GBP 231,666 56 5,839 74 -10,530 27 4,691 67
JPY 184,041 37 -68,744 27 72,625 71 -3,881 46
AUD 178,757 72 -39,462 48 53,746 59 -14,284 18
CAD 151,786 31 -43,791 14 45,878 87 -2,087 18
BRL 78,748 78 16,819 57 -16,343 45 -476 40
CHF 41,736 41 -3,656 45 2,701 49 955 61
NZD 36,603 25 -3,252 45 3,928 56 -676 44
USD Index 34,441 33 10,739 43 -12,711 56 1,972 38
RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24
Bitcoin 14,064 64 -293 72 -296 0 589 26

 


Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (90 percent) and the EuroFX (84 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (74 percent), Bitcoin (72 percent) and the Brazilian Real (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (14 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (27 percent), the US Dollar Index (43 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (45 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (42.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (42.5 percent)
EuroFX (83.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (81.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (74.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (70.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (26.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (33.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (44.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (42.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (13.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (11.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (48.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (45.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (44.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (43.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (89.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (91.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (57.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (53.1 percent)
Bitcoin (71.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (68.4 percent)

 

British Pound & Swiss Franc top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (20 percent) and the Swiss Franc (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (11 percent), the Japanese Yen (4 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-11 percent), Mexican Peso (-9 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-5.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-3.4 percent)
EuroFX (11.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (6.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (19.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (16.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (3.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (11.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (16.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-2.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-11.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-15.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (0.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-16.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (4.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-25.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (-9.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (66.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (-14.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-21.0 percent)
Bitcoin (-3.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-9.2 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT Chart

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 10,739 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 226 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,513 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 70.1 10.0 15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.9 46.9 9.4
– Net Position: 10,739 -12,711 1,972
– Gross Longs: 24,149 3,432 5,219
– Gross Shorts: 13,410 16,143 3,247
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.2 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.8 55.6 38.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.0 6.8 -13.9

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT Chart

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 169,400 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,039 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 164,361 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.5 54.2 12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.6 83.2 5.1
– Net Position: 169,400 -224,437 55,037
– Gross Longs: 243,516 418,842 94,777
– Gross Shorts: 74,116 643,279 39,740
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 83.7 14.7 66.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.3 -12.7 13.0

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT Chart

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 5,839 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,537 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,302 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.6 55.0 13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.1 59.5 11.5
– Net Position: 5,839 -10,530 4,691
– Gross Longs: 59,405 127,306 31,336
– Gross Shorts: 53,566 137,836 26,645
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 74.0 26.9 67.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.9 -24.6 25.7

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT Chart

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -68,744 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,875 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,869 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.4 73.5 16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.8 34.1 18.6
– Net Position: -68,744 72,625 -3,881
– Gross Longs: 13,680 135,330 30,358
– Gross Shorts: 82,424 62,705 34,239
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.5 71.1 45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 3.7 -6.5 14.9

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT Chart

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,656 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,064 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,720 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.7 44.0 36.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.5 37.6 34.2
– Net Position: -3,656 2,701 955
– Gross Longs: 6,556 18,374 15,210
– Gross Shorts: 10,212 15,673 14,255
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.9 49.4 60.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.7 -17.5 14.6

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT Chart

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -43,791 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,442 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,233 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.0 61.8 19.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.9 31.6 21.1
– Net Position: -43,791 45,878 -2,087
– Gross Longs: 24,295 93,784 29,997
– Gross Shorts: 68,086 47,906 32,084
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 13.7 87.4 18.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.3 6.5 5.7

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT Chart

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -39,462 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,894 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,356 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.3 55.3 10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.4 25.3 18.6
– Net Position: -39,462 53,746 -14,284
– Gross Longs: 54,241 98,900 18,987
– Gross Shorts: 93,703 45,154 33,271
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 48.2 59.0 17.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.6 0.5 -3.0

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT Chart

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,252 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 652 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,904 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.7 52.8 9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.6 42.1 11.3
– Net Position: -3,252 3,928 -676
– Gross Longs: 13,070 19,334 3,465
– Gross Shorts: 16,322 15,406 4,141
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.8 55.7 43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.0 -3.4 -0.5

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT Chart

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 54,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,043 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 49.8 47.2 2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.5 69.1 1.1
– Net Position: 54,128 -58,607 4,479
– Gross Longs: 133,098 126,071 7,451
– Gross Shorts: 78,970 184,678 2,972
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 89.6 11.4 84.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.1 7.6 8.2

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT Chart

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,223 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,596 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.4 44.4 5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.0 65.2 5.6
– Net Position: 16,819 -16,343 -476
– Gross Longs: 39,668 34,986 3,942
– Gross Shorts: 22,849 51,329 4,418
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 57.2 44.6 40.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -14.6 19.0 -31.8

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT Chart

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -293 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 196 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -489 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 68.0 2.9 9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 70.1 5.0 5.5
– Net Position: -293 -296 589
– Gross Longs: 9,566 410 1,364
– Gross Shorts: 9,859 706 775
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.8 45.9 26.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.3 -0.6 4.6

 


*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.


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Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment.Due to the level of risk and market volatility, ...

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