SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold SPX on 7/14/25 at 6268.56= gain 2.90%; Long SPX on 6/25/25 at 6092.16.

Our gain 1/1/24 to 12/31/24 = 29.28%; SPX gain 23.67%

Our Gain 1/1/23 to 12/31/23 SPX= 28.12%; SPX gain 23.38%

Monitoring purposes GOLD: Sold long GDX 4/11/25 at 49.66 = gain 21.33%.

We ended up 29.28% for 2024; SPX up 23.67% for the year. Above is the 39 minute SPY with it’s VIX and SPY/VIX ratio. So far this is just a minor divergence in the SPY but could turn into a larger divergence later. Since last Friday the SPY has made higher highs and higher lows on the 39 minute chart and the VIX (Bottom window) also has made higher highs and higher lows which is a negative divergence. Seasonality turns bearish this week and the current negative divergence could turn into a larger divergence because of the bearish Seasonality. Support lies near the February highs near 608 on the SPY. Sold long SPX (7/14/25) at 6268.56 = gain of 2.90%; Long SPX on 6/25/25 at 6092.16. 

Above is the monthly SPY. The month of June chart closed above the month of February on near double the volume and a confirmed breakout. Support now lies near the breakout area which is near the 609 SPY level. The month chart is bullish and the breakout appears to be confirmed. Seasonality turns bearish this week and suggests a trading range may develop over the next several weeks. Bigger trend remains bullish but may see a test of the breakout area near 609 level at least once if not more.

Above is the monthly GDX. June high tested the April high on 30% lighter volume and than closed below the April high and a bearish sign. If a market can’t take out the previous high with equal or higher volume it will reverse and attempt to take out the previous low. The previous low in this case is the April low; which lies near the 40.00 range. We noted with an red arrow on the April candle where GDX is up near 80% above it’s upper Bollinger band which suggests the market is extended and due for a consolidation. GDX has made little headway form the April high. Once the next low is found, new highs in GDX is expected. Longer term uptrend intact for the GDX but a consolidation is likely for the next several weeks.

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