SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold 12/18/24 at 5872.16 = gain .67%; Long SPX on 10-29-24 at 5832.92

Our Gain 1/1/23 to 12/31/23 SPX= 28.12%; SPX gain 23.38%

Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.

We are up 29.28%; SPX up 24% so far this year. Panic only forms at lows in the market and we define panic with the TRIN readings above 1.20 and tick readings below -300. With the SPX down near 3% last Wednesday the TRIN closed at 1.03 and the tick +117 which are not near panic levels suggesting a lasting low is not forming here. What we will be looking for in defining the next low is a bullish combination where the TRIN closes above 1.20 and the TICK close below -300 within one day of each other. Sold long SPX 12/18/24 = gain .67%. 

The top window is the 10 day average of the TRIN. We shaded in pink the times when the 10 day TRIN reached below .90 (current reading is .86). Previous times the 10 day TRIN reached below .90 it has been a bearish sign for the market; some it just stalled and other times a pull back materialized. Don’t believe an extended rallies is beginning here. It’s worth noting that the low last Wednesday and Thursday did not produce panic close reading in the TRIN suggests that low could be tested again.

We keep updating this chart because its currently developing a buy signal. The second window down from the top is the Inflation/deflation ratio and the top window is the RSI for this ratio. Buy signal for GDX and XAU develop when the RSI fall near 30 and than turns up. Current RSI stands at 30.13. We noted previous times with dotted red lines when the RSI of this ratio turn up from near 30. Some signals lasted longer than others but all marked short term lows.

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