E Coronavirus And Trump's Clever Inadequacy

Donald Trump wanted trade wars from way back. He said China was raping the USA economically. What he failed to understand was the scale of China's business model.

It has been said by Steven Roach that there are 300 million migrant workers in China. That almost equals the entire population of the United States. Many have problems getting to work. The factories have to produce goods to pay back loans. China is the largest economy in the world according to purchasing power parity.

It would be easier for the Chinese to buy their own products than for Americans to afford American made products. We had the wealthy Chinese developing a taste for American products in ever greater quantities until Trump started the trade war.

Trump and Coronavirus

Donald Trump introduced a serious trade war with China not seeing the Coronavirus Covid-19 on the horizon. He thought he was clever, but now the US government says the trade war hurt the US economy and it slowed the Chinese economy. Now Trump and the world face the virus from a weakened position to begin with.

Because Trump could not grasp the scale of the Chinese economy (they make things and we sell each other insurance), he cannot grasp the damage a credit crisis in China could have on the world. He panicked recently, saying that the US was open for business to sell GE motors to China's aviation system. Trump knows tax revenue is down. His tax cuts have made revenue collection inadequate. He also cannot afford a China collapse and has said as much.

As I say, Trump wanted world cooperation with China as well to slow the process of the virus, while Peter Navarro and hard-liners want only a break with China. This would be a disaster to our economy on top of the potential disaster facing us already.

But Trump has major blind spots. Sanctuary cities encourage illegal aliens to go to the police and to the hospital. The virus could spread more rapidly in none sanctuary cities. Again, being politically clever compromises safety.

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Disclosure: I have no financial interest in any companies or industries mentioned. I am not an investment counselor nor am I an attorney so my views are not to be considered investment ...

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Gary Anderson 2 months ago Author's comment

Update 10: Counties with the most cases should be locked down longer. Trump wants to give people money. Should have been helicopter money from the Fed, but from the government the rates are low. And it may not be enough money for desperate families.

Gary Anderson 2 months ago Author's comment

Update 9: Trump has banned flights from Europe, but with under 10000 test kits, Wall Street sees the possibility of the virus going out of control.

Kurt Benson 2 months ago Member's comment

"Possibility?" More like a foregone conclusion!

Gary Anderson 2 months ago Author's comment

I was being conservative. I am encouraged that big gatherings are being shut down. There needs to be more of that.

Adam Reynolds 2 months ago Member's comment

Agreed. Originally I thought we were overreacting. But the more I read about this pandemic, the more I realize that the US is woefully unprepared. More needs to be done.

Gary Anderson 3 months ago Author's comment

Update 8: Donald Trump's continued clever behavior manifests in people applying for legal alien status being denied medical if they want permanent residency. This will likely guarantee the faster spread of the virus.

Alexandra Gray 3 months ago Member's comment

What I find nutty is that some people are actually blaming Trump for the virus.

Gary Anderson 3 months ago Author's comment

That is nutty. I personally don't know anyone who is blaming Trump. Some are blaming Trump for his slow response and for not filling many empty CDC positions and for saying that people are overreacting just to remove him from office. Truth is, we do not know how the virus will impact the USA. It may be mild or terrible. We just don't know.

Ayelet Wolf 3 months ago Member's comment

I did read online that several were trying to blame Trump. The problem in a situation like this is that it's tough to balance harsh measures which can force hardship on one's citizens, and damage the economy, and keeping people safe. But I fear that all this is now too little too late.

Once the cat is out of the bag, it's hard to get it back in. This virus will not die out in the US (or any place else) any time soon.

Jack S. Chen 3 months ago Member's comment

China has taken some very aggressive actions to make inroads against the virus. People are now recovering faster there than new people are being infected. But the country suffered greatly, both economically and in terms of the human toll. Will America go to the same lengths?

Gary Anderson 3 months ago Author's comment

That is the big question Jack. I think Trump is wrong in saying it is safe to fly. It appears that Wall Street is voting exactly that way today. Trump is not going for massive quarantine, hoping to help stocks. But that decision could hurt stocks if the virus continues to spread.

Gary Anderson 3 months ago Author's comment

Update 7: First death recorded in the USA. In Germany, out of 50 to 70 cases, almost half occurred today.

Arthur Donner 3 months ago Contributor's comment

Great series of insights Gary.

All the best,


Gary Anderson 3 months ago Author's comment

Thanks prof. We hope it hits the US in a mild way, but if it doesn't, big events should be shut down at some point.

Gary Anderson 3 months ago Author's comment

Update 6: Shopping malls, large gatherings, even Trump rallies could be hit hard if the Coronavirus spreads within our borders. There is a rumor among Trump followers that the virus is the result of a conspiracy to take Trump down. Putting oneself in the line of fire, medically speaking, to take down a president is absurd. No one could want this virus to take over the USA. If Trump would have taken charge from the beginning, months ago, instead of keeping silent, he could have avoided a lot of grief.

Gary Anderson 3 months ago Author's comment

Update 5: China factories are up to 60 to 70 percent production. New cases are slowing in China. That is good news. Cases are increasing all over the world. Some governments are not ready. Some are. And some we aren't sure about.

Gary Anderson 3 months ago Author's comment

Update 4: The Trump administration has warned Dr Anthony Fauci to no longer speak about the Coronavirus without government clearance. This is desperation and damage control, shutting up scientist. Trump is showing severe incompetence with this ill timed censorship.

Norman Mogil 3 months ago Contributor's comment

Your point about the scale in China overwhelms that of the United States is so important. The Trump administration does not appreciate just how powerful the middle class is in China and how much this virus will hurt Chinese purchases from United States for both goods and services.

Gary Anderson 3 months ago Author's comment

I agree prof.