Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of May 5 And 12
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
| Forecast | Prior | ||
| Week of May 5 | Observation | ||
| May 5 | |||
| PMI Services Index | 51.4 | 51.4 | |
| ISM Services - April | 50.8 | 50.8 | |
| ISM Prices | |||
| ISM Business Activity | |||
| May 6 | |||
| International Trade in Goods - March | -$139.7B | 122.7 | |
| May 7 | |||
| FOMC | 4.375% | 4.375 | |
| Consumer Credit - March | $11.0B | -0.8 | |
| May 8 | |||
| Productivity - Q1 (p) | -0.5% | 1.5 | |
| Unit Labor Costs | 5.5 | 2.2 | |
| Initial Unemployment Claims | 235K | 241 | |
| Wholesale Inventories - March | 0.2% | 0.5 | |
| Week of May 12 | |||
| May 12 | |||
| Treasury Budget - April | -$260.0B | -160.5 | |
| May 13 | |||
| NFIB Small Business Optumism - April | 95.0 | 97.4 | |
| Consumer Price Index - April | 0.2% | -0.1 | |
| Core CPI | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| Energy | 2.5 | 2.4 | |
| May 15 | |||
| Retail Sales - April | 1.4% | 1.4 | |
| Retail Sales, ex Autos | 0.5 | 0.5 | |
| Retail Sales,ex autos and gas | 0.7 | 0.8 | |
| Producer Price Index - April | 0.3% | -0.4 | |
| PPI less food, energy and trade services | 0.3 | -0.1 | |
| Energy | |||
| Philadelphia Fed Survey | -10.0 | -26.4 | |
| NY Fed Manufacturing Index | -8.0 | -8.1 | |
| Initial Unemployment Claims | |||
| Industrial Production - April | -0.1 | -0.3 | |
| Capacity Utilization | -0.2 | 0.3 | |
| Manufacturing | 77.2 | 77.8 | |
| Business Inventories - March | 0.1% | 0.2 | |
| NAHB Index - May | 40 | 40 | |
| May 16 | |||
| Housing Starts - April | 1.350M | 1.324 | |
| Building Permits | 1.470 | 1.482 | |
| Export Prices - April | -0.3% | 0.0 | |
| Import Prices | -0.3 | -0.1 | |
| Import Prices, Ex-Petroleum | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment - May (p) | 52.2 | 52.2 | |
| Year Ahead Inflation | 65.5 | 6.5 | |
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More By This Author:
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Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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