Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of April 28 And May 5
| Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | ||||
| Prior | ||||
| Forecast | Observation | |||
| Week of April 28 | ||||
| April 28 | ||||
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey | -12.3 | -16.3 | ||
| April 29 | ||||
| International Trade - March (a) | -$124.3B | 147.9 | ||
| Wholesale Inventories - March (a) | 0.6% | 0.3% | ||
| S&P Case/Shiller Index - February | ||||
| Twenty City M/M | 0.1% | 0.1 | ||
| Twenty City M/M - SA | 0.5 | 0.5 | ||
| Twenty City Y/Y | 4.8 | 4.7 | ||
| FHFA Housing Price Index - February | 0.3% | 0.2 | ||
| Consumer Confidence | 85.7 | 92.9 | ||
| JOLTS -March | 7.300M | 7.568 | ||
| April 30 | ||||
| ADP Employment Report - April | 105K | 155 | ||
| GDP - Q1 (a) | 0.4% | 2.4 | ||
| Employment Cost Index - Q1 | 1.0% | 0.9 | ||
| Employment Cost Index - Y/Y | 1.0 | 3.8 | ||
| Chicago PMI - April | 45.5 | 47.6 | ||
| Personal Income - March | 0.3% | 0.8 | ||
| Personal Spending | 0.3 | 0.4 | ||
| Pending Home Sale Index - March | 74.0 | 72.0 | ||
| May 1 | ||||
| PMI Manufacturing Index - April | 50.7 | 50.7 | ||
| ISM (Mfg) - April | 48.2 | 49.0 | ||
| Construction Spending - March | 0.3% | 0.7 | ||
| Auto Sales - April | 15.3M | 17.8 | ||
| Car Sales | 2.8 | 3.1 | ||
| Truck Sales | 12.5 | 14.6 | ||
| May 2 | ||||
| Nonfarm Payrolls - April | 120K | 228 | ||
| Private | 105 | 209 | ||
| Manufacturing | -10 | 1 | ||
| Unemployment | 4.2% | 4.2 | ||
| Average Workweek | 34.2HR | 34.2 | ||
| Average Hourly Earnings | 0.3% | 0.3 | ||
| Factory Orders - March | 0.6% | 0.6 | ||
| Durable Goods Orders | 0.8 | 1.0 | ||
| Nondurable Goods Orders | 0.4 | 0.3 | ||
| Week of May 5 | ||||
| May 5 | ||||
| PMI Services Index | 51.4 | 51.4 | ||
| ISM Services - April | 50.8 | 50.8 | ||
| May 6 | ||||
| International Trade in Goods - March | -$100.0B | 122.7 | ||
| May 7 | ||||
| FOMC | 4.375% | 4.375 | ||
| Consumer Credit - March | $11.0B | -0.8 | ||
| May 8 | ||||
| Productivity - Q1 (p) | -0.5% | 1.5 | ||
| Unit Labor Costs | 5.5 | 2.2 | ||
| Wholesale Inventories - March | 0.6% | 0.3 |
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Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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