Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 18 And July 25

By Peter G. Morici

Sunday, July 17, 2022 10:05 PM EDT

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.


Prior Observation	Consensus
Week of July 18
July 18
NAHB Index - July	66	67	66

July 19
Housing Starts - June	1.610K	1.545	1.585
Building Permits	1.695	1.675	1.650

July 20
Existing Home Sales - June	5.330M	5.410	5.380

July 21
Initial Unemployment Claims	250K	244	240
Philadelphia Fed Survey	-1.0	-3.3	0
Leading Indicators	-0.5%	-0.4	-0.5

July 22
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index	52.2	52.7	52
PMI Services Flash Index	53.0	52.7	52.6

Week of July 25
July 25
Chicago Fed National Activity Index - June	0.01	0.01
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index	-10.0	-17.7

July 26
S&P Case/Shiller Index - May
Twenty City M/M	2.1%	2.3
Twenty City M/M - SA	1.6	1.8
Twenty City Y/Y	21.1	21.2

FHFA Home Price Index - May	1.6%	1.6
Consumer Confidence - July	97.0	98.7	97.5
New Home Sales - June	680K	696	677
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index	-10	-19

July 27
Durable Goods Orders - June	0.3%	0.8	-0.2
International Trade in Goods - June	-$103.2B	-106.7
Wholesale Inventories - June (a)	2.0%	1.8
Pending Home Sale Index - June	99.6	99.9
FMOC	2.375%	1.625

July 28
GDP - Q2 (a)	1.0%	-1.6	1.0

July 29
Employment Cost Index - Q2	1.0%	1.4	1.1
Employment Cost Index - Y/Y	4.5	4.5

Personal Income - June	0.5%	0.5	0.5
Personal Spending	0.8	0.2	0.8

Chicago PMI - July	56.5	56.0
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (r)	51.1	51.1

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Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.

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