Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 4 And July 11
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
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Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
Week of July 4 |
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July 5 |
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Factory Orders - May |
0.6% |
0.3 |
0.5 |
Durable Goods Orders |
0.7 |
0.5 |
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Nondurable Goods Orders |
0.6 |
0.2 |
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July 6 |
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PMI Services Index |
51.6 |
51.6 |
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ISM Services - June |
55.0 |
55.9 |
54.5 |
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JOLTS - May |
11.075M |
11.4 |
11.050 |
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July 7 |
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Initial Unemployment Claims |
230K |
231 |
230 |
ADP Employment Report - June |
230K |
128 |
200 |
International Trade - May |
-$84.3B |
-87.1 |
-85.0 |
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July 8 |
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Nonfarm Payrolls - June |
250K |
390 |
270 |
Private |
230 |
333 |
240 |
Manufacturing |
35 |
18 |
14 |
Unemployment |
3.6% |
3.6 |
3.6 |
Average Workweek |
34.6HR |
34.6 |
34.6 |
Average Hourly Earnings |
0.3% |
0.3 |
0.3 |
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Wholesale Inventories - May |
2.0% |
2.0 |
2.0 |
Consumer Credit - May |
32.0B |
38.1 |
31.4 |
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Week of July 11 |
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July 12 |
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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - July |
93.1 |
93.1 |
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July 13 |
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Consumer Price Index - June |
0.9% |
1.0 |
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Core CPI |
0.5 |
0.6 |
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Treasury Budget - June |
-$30.0B |
-66.2 |
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July 14 |
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Producer Producer Index - June |
0.8% |
0.8 |
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Energy |
0.5 |
0.5 |
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July 15 |
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Retail Sales - June |
0.4% |
-0.3 |
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Retail Sales, ex Autos |
0.6 |
0.5 |
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Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gasoline |
0.2 |
0.1 |
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NY Fed Manufacturing Index |
0.0 |
-1.2 |
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Export Prices - June |
0.7% |
0.6 |
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Import Prices |
0.7 |
2.8 |
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Import Prices, ex-Energy |
0.6 |
-0.1 |
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Industrial Production - June |
0.3% |
0.2 |
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Capacity Utilization |
79.2 |
79.0 |
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Manufacturing |
0.3 |
-0.1 |
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Business Inventories - May |
1.6% |
1.2 |
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Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (p) |
50.0 |
50.0 |
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Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.
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