Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Aug. 4 And 11

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Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.    
    Prior  
  Forecast Observation  
Week of August 4      
August 4      
Factory Orders - June -4.6% 8.2  
Durable Goods Orders  -9.3 16.4  
Nondurable Goods Orders  0.2 0.1  
       
August 5      
International Trade - June -$60.0B -71.5  
PMI Services Index 55.2 55.2  
ISM Services - July 51.1 50.8  
       
August 7      
Initial Unemployment Claims 220K 218  
       
Wholesale Inventories - June 0.2% 0.2  
Consumer Credit - June $16.0B 5.1  
       
Week of August 11      
August 12      
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - July 99.6 98.6  
       
Consumer Price Index - July 0.2% 0.3  
CPI Core 0.3 0.2  
       
Treasury Budget - July -$215.0B 27.0  
       
August 14      
Producer Price Index - July 0.2% 0.0  
PPI less food energy and trade services 0.3 0.0  
       
August 15      
Retail Sales - July 0.2% 0.6  
Retail Sales, ex Autos 0.2 0.5  
Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas 0.3 0.6  
       
Export Prices -  July 0.0% 0.5  
Import Prices 0.0 0.1  
Import Prices, ex-Petroleum 0.1 0.0  
       
Industrial Production - July  -0.1% 0.3  
Manufacturing 0.0 0.1  
Capacity Utilization 77.6 77.6  
       
Business Inventories - June 0.2% 0.0

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Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...

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