Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of April 24 And May 1
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Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast | Prior Observation | Consensus | |
Week of April 24 | |||
April 24 | |||
Chicago Fed National Activity Index - March | -0.25% | -0.19 | |
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey | -12.0% | -15.7 | |
April 25 | |||
S&P Case/Shiller Index - February | |||
Twenty City M/M | 0.0% | -0.6 | |
Twenty City M/M - SA | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.4 |
Twenty City Y/Y | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.1 |
FHFA Housing Price Index - February | -0.4% | 0.2 | |
Consumer Confidence | 139.8 | 104.2 | 104.0 |
New Home Sales - March | 630K | 640 | 634 |
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey | -8 | -5 | |
Durable Goods Orders - March | 1.2% | -1.0 | 0.8 |
International Trade - March (a) | -$90.6B | -91.6 | |
Wholesale Inventories - March (a) | 0.3% | 0.1 | 0.2 |
April 27 | |||
GDP - Q1 (a) | 1.8% | 2.6 | 2.0 |
Initial Jobless Claims | 250K | 245 | 250 |
Pending Home Sale Index - March | 82.3 | 83.2 | 83.4 |
April 28 | |||
Employment Cost Index - Q1 | 1.2% | 1.0 | 1.1 |
Employment Cost Index - Y/Y | 5.0 | 5.1 | |
Personal Income - March | 0.3% | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Personal Spending | -0.1 | 0.2 | -0.1 |
Chicago PMI - April | 43.3 | 43.8 | 43.5 |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - April (r) | 63.5 | 63.5 | 63.5 |
Week of May 1 | |||
May 1 | |||
PMI Manufacturing Index - April | 50.4 | 50.4 | |
ISM (Mfg) - April | 46.7 | 46.3 | |
Construction Spending - March | 0.2 | -0.1 | |
May 2 | |||
Factory Orders - March | 0.8 | -0.7 | |
Durable Goods Orders | 1.2 | -1.0 | |
Nondurable Goods Orders | 0.3 | -0.4 | |
JOLTS -March | 9.600M | 9.931 | |
Auto Sales* - April | 14.8M | 14.8 | |
Car Sales | 3.0 | 3.0 | |
Truck Sales | 11.8 | 11.8 | |
May 3 | |||
ADP Employment Report - April | 150K | 145 | |
PMI Services Index | 53.7 | 53.7 | |
ISM Services - April | 51.8 | 51.2 | |
May 4 | |||
Productivity - Q1 (p) | 0.0% | 1.7 | |
Unit Labor Costs | 4.0 | 3.2 | |
International Trade - March | -$69.5B | -70.5 | |
May 5 | |||
Nonfarm Payrolls - April | 185K | 236 | |
Private | 157 | 189 | |
Manufacturing | 0 | -1 | |
Unemployment | 3.5% | 3.5 | |
Average Workweek | 34.4HR | 34.4 | |
Average Hourly Earnings | 0.3% | 0.3 | |
Consumer Credit - March | $18.0B | 15.3 | |
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Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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