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Now that we have the very important personal income and spending data through November, here is a look at the widely acknowledged monthly indicators that the NBER has highlighted in determining whether the economy is continuing to expand, or is contracting.

The below link includes nonfarm payrolls (blue), industrial production (red), real personal income excluding government transfers (gold), and real manufacturing and trade sales (dark green, through October). Also included are manufacturing production (light red) and real disposable personal income (yellow). All are normed to 100 as of last July. Link here.

It’s fair to say that all of these stalled through October, with only real personal income higher by 0.1%; and to some extent through November, with industrial production higher by 0.1% and real personal income higher by 0.2%. At the same time, there clearly was not any significant downturn that would warrant a recession declaration.

So call it the Autumn Shutdown Stall.

Through December, we only have the jobs data, which continued to stall, and industrial production, which rose to 0.4% higher than July, primarily on utilities (likely data center construction for AI purposes). Although it isn’t included in the above, as indicated yesterday real personal spending continued to increase at a solid pace through November. An update for manufacturing and trade sales is scheduled for next week, but personal income and spending for December isn’t scheduled to be released until late February.

More By This Author:

No Mini-Recession During The Government Shutdown, As Consumers Raided Their Piggy Banks To Spend
More Evidence Of A Positive “Regime Change” In Jobless Claims: Is It Tied To The Immigration Crackdown?
Stale Data Watch: Construction Spending For October — More “Green Shoots”?